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The Memphis Grizzlies (3-1) visit the winless Sacramento Kings (0-3) on Thursday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Kings prediction and pick.
Memphis is 3-1 following a big victory over the Nets. The Grizzlies are 1-2-1 against the spread (ATS) after covering 63% of games last season. Three of Memphis' four games have gone over, while one pushed. Last year the Grizzlies had a 52% over rate.
Sacramento is 0-3 fresh off a tight loss to the Warriors. The Kings are 2-1 ATS despite covering just 48% of games last season. Two of Sacramento's three games have gone under – a flip from last year's 54% over rate.
Last season, the Grizzlies took all three matchups between the teams by 27, 19, and 25 point-margins. All three of those games finished with a lower total than tonight's 236.5-point line.
Here are the Grizzlies-Kings NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Kings Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: -3 (-114)
Sacramento Kings: +3 (-106)
Over: 236 (-112)
Under: 236 (-108)
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
The Grizzlies have looked like one of the best team's in the NBA this season thanks to their high-powered offense. Memphis is the league's seventh-highest-scoring team this year as they average a hair under 119 points per game. They haven't been particularly efficient from the field but really excel beyond the arc and at the line. The Grizzlies are second in three-pointers made per game and are top 10 in free throws made.
The conductor of Memphis' explosive offense is, of course, point guard Ja Morant. Morant took a huge leap last year en route to averaging 27 points per game and looks to have taken things a step further this year. Morant is the league's second-leading scorer with 35.3 PPG. He's been red-hot from deep to start the year – shooting an unworldly 60% from three on five attempts per game. Morant won't shoot 60% from three all season but he's in a good spot to expose a Sacramento defense allowing opponents to shoot 41% from three (third worst in the NBA). Even if Morant cools off, he'll still make big contributions with his strong playmaking (seven assists per game).
While Morant gets most of the spotlight, Memphis is a deep team full of capable scorers. Guard Desmond Bane has averaged a quiet 20.5 points per game and is second in the league in three-pointers per game (four). The breakout player for the Grizzlies, however, has been forward Santi Aldama. The last first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Aldama hardly played as a rookie but has started all four games this season. Aldama is a skilled, versatile big man who can stretch the floor (1.5 threes per game) and block shots (1.3 BPG). His strong play is something to keep in mind when making a Grizzlies-Kings prediction.
Why The Kings Could Cover The Spread
Sacramento was a popular sleeper team after they played well down the stretch last year post-Domantas Sabonis trade. However, they've dropped three straight games to start the year despite being within seven points of each loss. If the Kings are going to cover tonight, they're going to need more out of their star big man.
Sabonis was a stud for Sacramento after being acquired via trade from the Pacers. After the all-star break, Sabonis averaged 19.5 points and 12.6 rebounds while shooting 55%. This year has been a different story. Sabonis' scoring is down to 14 PPG and he's shooting just 47%. The 6'11” big man hasn't rebounded as well as last year, either (9.3 RPG). He didn't play against Memphis last season, but in the year prior has averaged 18 points and 11 rebounds in his last six matchups with Grizzlies center Steven Adams.
Even if Sabonis continues his cold start, Sacramento at least knows they can rely on point guard De'Aaron Fox. Fox has been on fire to start the season despite his team's slow start. On the year, Fox is averaging 31.7 PPG on 59% shooting. He's also dished out seven assists per game and shot 45% on a career-high 6.7 three-point attempts per game. The speedy guard has performed well against Memphis' Ja Morant in his career – averaging 22.5 PPG in their matchups. Memphis allows the second-most points per game and they've been particularly exposed by opposing point guards. Kyrie Irving (37 points), Luka Doncic (32 points), and Jalen Brunson (15 points) each have had solid games against Memphis – providing a clear path for Fox to have another big game.
Final Grizzlies-Kings Prediction & Pick
The Grizzlies absolutely dusted the Kings in their three meetings last year, winning by an average of 24 points per game. Given how well Memphis has played this season and how bad Sacramento has been, I expect more of the same tonight.
Final Grizzlies-Kings Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -3 (-114)
