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The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Oklahoma City tonight to play the Thunder. The Pelicans are coming off of a tough and controversial loss to the Denver Nuggets. The game ended with a block on Zion Williamson that many thought should have been a called foul. The Thunder are firmly driving a tank to end out the season, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford out, the Thunder are looking to get as high a pick as possible. Let's continue the NBA Odds series and make a prediction on the Pelicans-Thunder game.
Here is how sportsbooks have set the opening Pelicans-Thunder Odds.
NBA Odds: Pelicans-Thunder Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: +9 (-112)
New Orleans Pelicans: -9 (-108)
Over 231.5: (-110)
Under 231.5: (-110)
Why the Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
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The simple answer to this is Zion Williamson. The Thunder have absolutely no one that could even fathom to slow down Zion. Zion will abuse the Thunder's forwards like Darius Bazley and Aleksej Pokusevski with pure strength, but he's also much too quick for a center like Moses Brown. If Zion takes advantage and puts that much pressure on the defense, they can blow the Thunder completely out of the water.
The Pelicans are not a good defensive team, but they are a good defensive matchup for the Pelicans. New Orleans really struggles to protect the rim, but luckily, the Thunder generate almost no rim pressure. The Thunder's offense is really weak and relies a ton on random outlier performances from young players, the Pelicans' biggest weakness should not bother them too much against the Thunder.
Why the Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Nine points is a solid number for the Thunder to come within. They would have a tough time winning this game, but they have proved themselves to be able to stick with good teams. They have had their share of blowouts, as any awful team does, but they have also kept pace with teams just as good as the Pelicans. They recently beat the Boston Celtics and played close games against the Indiana Pacers and the Toronto Raptors.
The Thunder are a super young team and that leads to very inconsistent performances. This can usually be a bad thing, but you never know when that pendulum will swing the other way. Any game, a player like Aleksej Pokusevski, Moses Brown, Lugentz Dort, or Darius Bazley could go off for a big night. Just one of these big games could drag the Thunder to at least within 9 points.
Final Thunder-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
This is one that has two clear bets. The Pelicans are a solid bet to cover here. They are a nightmare matchup for the Thunder on both ends and it would take one or two outlier performances from the Thunder to stay within nine points. The Pelicans should have a defense they can exploit at the rim and the three-point line and they have a solid chance to win by well over 15 points if everything clicks.
The other bet that makes a lot of sense here is 231.5 (-110) bet. This game has a legitimate chance to be a complete blowout. Blowouts usually result in high-scoring totals and lackadaisical defense. Both teams are pretty bad defenses as well and this could result in a score that dwarfs the 231.5 total expected. This makes for a solid bet. A parlay to get both bets of the Pelicans covering and the over on points could make a lot of sense here.
Final Thunder-Pelicans Prediction % Pick: Thunder
