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The New Orleans Pelicans (29-28) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (27-28) on Monday night. Action tips off at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pelicans-Thunder prediction, pick, and how to watch.
New Orleans has won three of their last four games and sits in seventh place in the Western Conference. The Pelicans covered 48% of their games while 56% went over the projected point total. Oklahoma City has won two consecutive games to bump them into 10th place in the West. The Thunder covered a league-best 63% of their games while 60% went over. This will be the third of four meetings between the conference foes. New Orleans won both prior meetings by a combined seven points.
Here are the Pelicans-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pelicans-Thunder Odds
New Orleans Pelicans: +2.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder: -2.5 (-110)
Over: 235.5 (-110)
Under: 235.5 (-110)
How To Watch Pelicans vs. Thunder
TV: Bally New Orleans, Bally Oklahoma
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
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Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans continues to hang on for dear life as they have free-fallen from the top of the Western Conference standings. Despite that, they have turned things around somewhat thanks to the return of Brandon Ingram. However, they will have to carry on without Zion Williamson after the news broke that he suffered an injury setback. That being said, the Pelicans still have a strong chance to cover tonight thanks to their all-around play. New Orleans ranks 11th in scoring, 16th in defense, and fifth in rebound rate. Additionally, they're absolutely lethal around the rim. New Orleans ranks fifth in points in the paint and attempts the eighth-most free throws per game. That bodes well for their chances of covering tonight considering the Thunder allow the ninth-most points in the paint in the league.
If the Pelicans are going to cover as road underdogs tonight, they're going to need Brandon Ingram to continue his strong play. After missing a significant portion of the season due to an injury, Ingram is now firing on all cylinders. Over his last four games, Ingram has averaged 29 PPG, 6.8 APG, and 5.0 RPG while shooting 54% from the floor. He continues to get better and better and has noticeably been on fire from beyond the arc. The career-36% three-point shooter is shooting 40% from deep this season on 3.8 attempts per game. Look for BI to have another big night against a Thunder defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in points allowed.
In recent games, former first-round pick Trey Murphy III has really stepped up. He's taken on a much bigger role this season with New Orleans' various injuries and has proven he belongs in the NBA. Over his last five games, Murphy averaged 18.6 PPG including 3.2 threes per game while shooting 47% from beyond the arc. The sharpshooter has drained multiple threes in four consecutive games and he'll have a good chance to make that five against a Thunder defense allowing the ninth-most threes per game.
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Oklahoma City has proven to be one of the brightest young teams in the NBA thanks to their outperforming of preseason expectations. The Thunder are firmly in the mix to make the play-in game thanks to their explosive offense. Oklahoma City averages 117.9 PPG – third-most in the NBA. They are especially attuned to attacking the basket and getting easy buckets as they average the fourth-most points in the paint per game. Additionally, the Thunder play at the third-fastest pace in the league and are therefore relentlessly attacking opposing defenses as they average the most shot attempts per game.
The Thunder are led by All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has risen into stardom this season, averaging 31.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 5.7 APG. The do-it-all point guard is a strong defender as well as he chips in 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. He is coming off a monster game in their win over Portland that saw him score 44 points on a highly-efficient 13/16 shooting. SGA averaged 37.5 PPG in their two prior meetings with the Pelicans – setting him up for another strong night.
The X-factor for the Thunder tonight is wing Josh Giddey. Giddey, too, has had a breakout year. The second-year pro has finally started to realize his immense potential and is playing some of his best basketball of late. Over his last five games, Giddey averaged 18.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and 7.8 APG. He is shooting 52% over that stretch and should continue to see success tonight against a struggling New Orleans defense.
Final Pelicans-Thunder Prediction & Pick
The Pelicans have been playing better as of late but the Thunder pose a tough matchup for them given their offensive prowess.
Final Pelicans-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (-110)
