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The Toronto Raptors (14-18) visit the Cleveland Cavaliers (22-11) on Friday night. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Raptors-Cavaliers prediction and pick.
Toronto snapped a six-game losing streak in their last appearance but still sits in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 16-16 against the spread while 53% of their games have gone over. Cleveland has won five consecutive games and remains in third place in the East. The Cavaliers are 18-13-2 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone under. This will be the third of four meetings between the two teams. the Raptors won both prior matchups – with both taking place in Toronto.
Here are the Raptors-Cavaliers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Raptors-Cavaliers Odds
Toronto Raptors: +4.5 (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers: -4.5 (-110)
Over: 215 (-110)
Under: 215 (-110)
Why The Raptors Could Cover The Spread
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Toronto may not have a great record, but the underlying metrics suggest they're something of a sleeping volcano. The Raptors rank 20th in scoring but 14th in offensive rating. They're very strong on defense, ranking eighth in points allowed and 15th in defensive rating. Toronto is also a strong rebounding team as they rank 11th in both rebound differential and rebound rate. The Raptors notably listed guard Gary Trent Jr. as questionable due to an injury.
Toronto has struggled this season but has a great chance to cover tonight thanks to their track record against the Cavaliers and the recent play of Pascal Siakam. The Raptors have already beaten the Cavaliers twice this season, yet enter tonight as 4.5-point underdogs. Forward OG Anunoby has seen a great deal of success against them. In their two previous meetings, Anunoby averaged 19 PPG and three STOCKS (steals + blocks) per game. The defensive stopper has been red-hot against Cleveland, averaging three made threes per game while shooting 55% from deep in their two meetings. OG had missed some time with an injury, but returned this week and looked spry. After sitting for 10 days, he played 40 and 36 minutes in their two games this week – appearing to be fully healed.
While Anunoby's return is certainly helpful, the Raptors go where star Pascal Siakam takes them. Siakam finds himself in the midst of an incredible season. The do-it-all forward averages 26.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 6.8 APG while shooting 49% from the field and 35% from three. Siakam has been on fire this week. He dropped a 38-15-6 line against Philly and then followed it up with a 52-9-7 performance at Madison Square Garden. While Siakam can't be expected to score 50 points every night, his recent string of games and overall strong season is worth keeping in mind before making a Raptors-Cavaliers prediction.
Why The Cavaliers Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland is rolling of late and gets another game at home where they are an NBA-best 16-2. Cleveland is an average offensive team, ranking 21st in scoring and 12th in offensive rating. The Cavaliers are elite on defense as they lead the league in points allowed and defensive rating. Cleveland is also one of the best rebounding teams in the league with a rank of fifth in both rebound differential and rebound rate. Cleveland notably listed forwards Evan Mobley and Lamar Stevens as questionable due to injuries.
Despite Cleveland's strong start to the season, the Cavaliers are still looking for their first win over the Raptors. Part of that can be attributed to injuries – both Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland have only played one full game against the Raptors. Part of it, however, can be blamed on the ineffectiveness of star Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell has averaged just 19 PPG against the Raptors this season – a far cry from his season average of 29.5 PPG. Mitchell is coming off a 36-point outing against Milwaukee's stingy defense, perhaps giving backers some confidence in his ability to bounce back against the Raptors.
Something about this game reeks of a Darius Garland explosion. Garland got injured in their first meeting with the Raptors and had to exit early. He then responded well in their second matchup, scoring 18 points and dishing out 10 assists. Now that he catches them at home, however, Garland could have a monster performance in store. Cleveland's point guard has been solid all season but transforms into one of the best point guards in the league at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. At home he averages 24.3 PPG and 8.3 APG while shooting 50% from the field and 45% from the field. Throw in Toronto's weak perimeter defense and that's a recipe for a monster night from the young guard.
Final Raptors-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick
Given how well Toronto has played against Cleveland this year, it wouldn't surprise me if they keep things close. Pay attention to the status of Evan Mobley. Assuming he plays, I like the Cavaliers to cover in a revenge spot.
Final Raptors-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 (-110)
