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The Golden State Warriors (15-17) visit the Brooklyn Nets (19-12) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Nets prediction and pick.
Golden State has lost four of their last five games to drop them to 11th in the Western Conference. The Warriors are 14-18 against the spread while 61 percent of their games have gone over. Brooklyn has won 10 of their last 11 games to bump them to fourth in the Eastern Conference. The Nets are 14-16-1 against the spread while 55 percent of their games have gone under. This will be the first of two meetings between the two teams. Last season, Golden State took both games.
Here are the Warriors-Nets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Warriors-Nets Odds
Golden State Warriors: +12.5 (-108)
Brooklyn Nets: -12.5 (-112)
Over: 224.5 (-110)
Under: 224.5 (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
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The Warriors are hanging on for dear life thanks to the recent injury to Steph Curry and poor play this season. Golden State has been an electric offensive team, ranking fifth in scoring and 13th in offensive rating. They're brutal defensively, however, as they rank 26th in points allowed and 21st in defensive rating. Golden State is a poor rebounding team as well where they rank 21st in rebound differential and 26th in rebound rate.
With so many key pieces missing, Golden State's most likely path to a cover comes via a major night from Jordan Poole. Poole has been solid this season, averaging 19.3 PPG while playing just 28.8 minutes per game. Poole has struggled with efficiency, however, as he's shooting just 44 percent from the field and 33 percent from three. That being said, he's the only healthy player out of Golden State's top four scorers and will likely have an incredibly high usage rate. Poole is certainly capable of heating up and carrying his team to victory – or at least to a loss within 12 points. He's been red-hot of late, averaging 32.7 PPG on 53 percent shooting over their last three games. That includes a 43-point outing in their win over Toronto. His ability to get hot and potentially drop 40+ points is something to consider before making a Warriors-Nets prediction.
After Poole, forward Draymond Green is the team's next health scorer, averaging 8.4 PPG. That is, to put it kindly, not good. Draymond has been fairly efficient thus far despite limited usage as he's shooting 54 percent from the field. He isn't much of a scorer with a season-high of just 19 points. However, he's a skilled playmaker who averages 6.6 APG. The Warriors do have some interesting pieces surrounding Green and will likely rely on him to get Jonathan Kuminga (13 points last night) and Moses Moody (11 points last night) involved. Green will have to channel playoff Draymond tonight if Golden State wants to cover with a crippled roster.
Why The Nets Could Cover The Spread
Brooklyn has finally started to put together sustained success in the Durant/Irving era as they find themselves as one of the hottest teams in the league. The Nets have a strong offense that ranks 17th in scoring and eighth in offensive rating. They have been surprisingly solid on defense as well, ranking 10th in points allowed and 15th in defensive rating. Brooklyn's biggest weakness is their ability to rebound as they rank 26th in rebound differential and last in rebound rate.
Brooklyn is red-hot right now and just need's to keep playing their style of basketball if they want to cover against an undermanned Warriors squad. That means playing first and foremost through their two stars, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Durant is having one of the best seasons of his hall-of-fame career. The former MVP averages 30.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 5.3 APG. He's been a force on defense as well, averaging 2.3 STOCKS (steals + blocks) per game. Durant has been his usual efficient self despite not catching fire from beyond the arc yet. KD is shooting 57 percent from the field, 36 percent from three, and 92 percent from the line. KD's props are certainly worth a look as well considering his extensive history with the Warriors.
While Durant has been incredible, the biggest reason for Brooklyn's turnaround is the stellar play of Kyrie Irving. The Robin to KD's Batman, Irving has settled in well after a tumultuous start to the season off the court. Irving averages 26.1 PPG while shooting 49 percent from the field. The dynamic guard is in a nice spot here against Golden State's porous defense and will be a major factor in a potential Brooklyn cover.
Final Warriors-Nets Prediction & Pick
The Warriors are so banged up right now I can't see any situation you'd back them tonight. The spread is large but ride the red-hot Nets.
Final Warriors-Nets Prediction & Pick: Brooklyn Nets -12.5 (-112)
