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NFL Week 15's slate of player prop picks features some good opportunities to bet on players who will be a key part of their team’s game plan, as well as one player who will likely get extra opportunities due to other issues with his team’s offense. Keep reading for my best player prop picks for this week’s NFL matchups and be sure to tune in to our NFL odds series for more on betting in the NFL.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Najee Harris Over/Under Rushing Yards
Over 58.5 (113)
Under 58.5 (-113)
Kenny Pickett is out this week with a concussion despite being a partial participant in some practices late in the week. The Steelers have named Mitch Trubisky their starting QB for this week but could see Mason Rudolph at some point. Either way, neither of these players inspires a ton of confidence.
Trubisky will be given a very short leash and pulled from the game if he starts turning the ball over. Trubisky also has a history of playing conservatively, particularly when he is looking over his shoulder.
Rudolph can throw a really pretty deep ball, but he can’t do too much more than that. With either of these players under center, expect the Steelers to rely heavily on their ground game and their lead running back, Najee Harris. Harris should get at least 15 carries this week, and if he does I think he’s close to certain to go over 58.5 total rushing yards. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harris get close to 20 carries, or even around 23-25 depending on how the game is going. If the score is close, Mike Tomlin’s team will likely try to control the flow of the game by running the ball heavily, reducing the likelihood of turnovers, and controlling time of possession. If the Steelers have the lead, you can be almost certain that this is the strategy they will take.
Prediction: Over 58.5 (-114)
Ja’Marr Chase ATS (-110)
Ja’Marr Chase is Joe Burrow’s favorite target, and this has been true dating back to their days at LSU together. The two have established chemistry, and are almost always on the same page. Chase has seven touchdowns in nine games this season, and Tampa Bay ranks 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed, giving up an average of 1.5 touchdowns through the air per game so far this season.
The Bengals are slight favorites in this game, and they will likely require a productive outing from both their QB and #1 receiver in order to come away with the victory. Look for Burrow to target Chase early and often, particularly on deep shots down the field. Once the Bengals get into the RedZone, expect Chase to get plenty of looks in the endzone, where he is an elite contested catch receiver, great at using his frame to box out and come down with jump balls.
Chase has a variety of ways to score his touchdown, and he is a key part of this Bengals offense. Expect him to be fully utilized if the Bengals want to win this game, and that includes getting him the ball with plenty of opportunities to find the endzone.
Derrick Henry ATS (-195)
Derrick Henry has scored a touchdown in eight of the 13 games that he has played this season, and the Los Angeles Chargers rank in the middle of the pack, allowing roughly one touchdown on the ground per game.
Tennessee ranks 21st in passing touchdowns per game, 30th in passing attempts per game at just 26.1, and 29th in passing yards per game. This is a team that isn’t afraid to rely heavily on its rushing attack, and for good reason: Derrick Henry is arguably the best running back in all of football.
Henry possesses a unique combination of size, speed, strength, and athleticism that makes him virtually unparalleled among contemporary NFL running backs. He has put the team on his back and carried the Titans before. This play carries with it a bit more juice than I would ideally be comfortable with, but Henry is an elite player and the Titans are going to rely heavily on him to win this game. He’ll get plenty of carries, and he is capable of breaking away on any one of them and taking it to the house.
Whenever the team is in the RedZone, it’s a good bet that Henry will get a steady dose of goalline and short-yardage opportunities as well, where he can muscle his way into the endzone. Either way, if the Titans want to win this game, they’ll need Henry to be productive and put the ball in the endzone at least once.
