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The Tennessee Titans will face the New England Patriots in a crucial AFC matchup. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Titans-Patriots prediction and pick.
This is the most important game of the season for both of these teams. The Titans have essentially secured the AFC South crown, but this is their first matchup against a legitimate playoff team in nearly a month. Tennessee needs to have a good showing here to see how well they stack up when facing another potential AFC division winner. Meanwhile, the Patriots need a win to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.
For more insight on the Titans-Patriots matchup in Week 12, listen below:
New England has gone on a massive five-game winning streak to give themselves a half-game lead in the division, but that isn't nearly enough to secure the spot. The Pats desperately need to keep winning, and a matchup against another playoff-caliber team at home is a good spot to make it happen.
Here are the Titans-Patriots odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Titans-Patriots Odds:
Tennessee Titans: +7 (-110)
New England Patriots: -7 (-110)
Over: 43.5 (-105)
Under: 43.5 (-115)
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Why The Titans Could Cover The Spread
The Titans have been one of the best teams in the league against the spread, so it's a surprise to see them as touchdown underdogs here. Tennessee is 7-4 ATS on the year, and their numbers get even better when we look at this game. Head coach Mike Vrabel's squad is a perfect 5-0 against the spread when they enter the game as underdogs, with three of their covers coming as road underdogs. The Titans have entered three games this season as touchdown underdogs, and they've won every single one of those games. The scene is set for another Tennessee cover.
New England's offensive success has been built around a very specific formula. Run the ball well, and use the run game to set up easy throws for Mac Jones. Tennessee is good enough against opposing run games to blow up that formula. The Titans are only allowing 97 rushing yards per game, good for the fourth-best ranking in the NFL. The Titans also only allow 4.1 yards per carry, another one of the best stats in the league. New England will have trouble running the football here, putting plenty of pressure on a rookie quarterback in a playoff atmosphere.
Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread
While Jones hasn't had the most difficult quarterbacking job, he deserves plenty of credit for New England's success. The former Alabama Crimson Tide star has been efficient, successful in protecting the football, and fairly accurate. Those skills should be enough to pick apart a Tennessee pass defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Titans are allowing 253 passing yards per game, and have allowed huge numbers to the likes of Trevor Siemian and Zach Wilson. New England should be able to move the ball through the air at will here.
It's late in the season and injuries are taking their toll around the league. Tennessee is no exception. The Titans have one of the longest injury reports in the NFL this week, with several key starters being included on it. Wide receiver AJ Brown, guard Nate Davis, linebackers Harold Landry, Rashaan Evans and David Long, as well as defensive lineman Teair Tart have all missed practice this week. New England should be facing plenty of backups on Sunday.
Final Titans-Patriots Prediction & Pick
We've seen this line for Tennessee several times this year, and the result has been the same every single time. Take the Titans as huge underdogs here.
Final Titans-Patriots Prediction & Pick: Tennessee Titans +7 (-110)
