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The Denver Nuggets will battle the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday at the Target Center. It will be a Western Conference Semifinals rematch as we continue our NBA odds series and make a Nuggets-Timberwolves prediction and pick.
The Nuggets lead the head-to-head series 89-57. However, the Wolves are 6-4 in the past 10 regular-season games against the Nuggets, including 4-1 in the past five at Target Center. The Wolves edged out the Nuggets 119-116 on November 1, 2024, at the Target Center. Significantly, these teams have met in the playoffs in two consecutive seasons, with the Nuggets winning in 2023 and the Wolves winning in 2024.
Here are the Nuggets-Timberwolves NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Timberwolves Odds
Denver Nuggets: -2.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -142
Minnesota Timberwolves: +2.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +120
Over: 229 (-112)
Under: 229 (-108)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Timberwolves
Time: 3 PM ET/12 PM PT
TV: ABC
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Nuggets Could Cover the Spread/Win
Nikola Jokic just accomplished an impressive feat last set by Wilt Chamberlain, fracking up his fifth straight triple-double. It was an impressive blowout win over the Sacramento Kings and a reminder of how good the Nuggets can be when they are firing on all cylinders.
When the Nuggets fell to the Timberwolves in November, they did not play badly. However, some inconsistencies caused them to struggle, and they could not overcome them. After struggling early, the comeback fell short.
Aaron Gordon was the leading scorer, finishing with 31 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 11 for 18 from the field, including 5 for 7 from the three-point line. Meanwhile, Jokic had 26 points and nine rebounds while shooting 8 for 16 from the floor. Christian Braun added 14 points while shooting 5 for 11.
The Nuggets did not shoot well overall. Unfortunately, they hit just 44.6 percent of their shots, including 34.4 percent from the triples. Denver also hit just 79.3 percent of their opportunities at the charity stripe. Somehow, winning the board battle 46-38 did not help them win, but the 17 offensive rebounds gave them more chances. Likewise, the 11 steals were paramount for them. But the Nuggets must cut down on the mistakes. Unfortunately, they turned the ball over 13 times in their loss to the Timberwolves. That must change this time around.
The Nuggets will cover the spread if Jokic can dominate and the rest of the squad can convert on their shooting chances. Then, they must defend the rim and box out to prevent the Wolves from getting any chances.
Why the Timberwolves Could Cover the Spread/Win
Julius Randle will be a focal part of this offense in this game. Of course, he has been a solid addition for the Wolves and one of their more consistent players. But this season has not been easy for the Wolves, as they have hovered around eighth place in the Western Conference. Randle was a key contributor in the win over the Nuggets, scoring 23 points, six rebounds, and seven assists.
Anthony Edwards must regain that killer instinct he had in the playoffs. So far, it has not materialized often, as he has had numerous inconsistent stretches. But it seems like he is starting to heat up, as Edwards has scored 20 or more points in six consecutive games. Edwards led the Wolves in the win by scoring 29 points while shooting 11 for 23. Meanwhile, Rudy Gobert added 17 points and 14 rebounds in the win. Jaden McDaniels had 10 points while shooting 4 for 7 from the floor. Likewise, Naz Reid had 16 points off the bench.
The Timberwolves shot 51.8 percent from the floor in that game, including 42.9 percent from the triples. Additionally, they shot 83.3 percent from the charity stripe. The Wolves also won despite losing the board battle. Regardless, they made up for it by blocking nine shots and delivering eight steals. The Timberwolves must cut down on the turnovers, as they had 16 giveaways last time.
The Timberwolves will cover the spread if Edwards can carry the team on his shoulders and lead the charge on offense. Then, they must defend the rim and play solid defense.
Final Nuggets-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick
The Nuggets are 23-20-1 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 17-26-1 against the spread. Moreover, the Nuggets are 12-10 against the spread on the road, while the Wolves are 4-15-1 against the spread at home. The Nuggets are 5-2 against the spread when facing the Northwest Division, while the Timberwolves are 1-4 against the spread when facing the division.
I like the Nuggets a lot in this game. They seem to be playing well right now, and the Timberwolves are too inconsistent to trust. Therefore, I am rolling with the Nuggets to avenge their loss from November and cover the spread in this game.
Final Nuggets-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick: Nuggets -2.5 (-108)
