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It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Ohio-Toledo prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Ohio-Toledo.
We have arrived at the end of the MAC basketball regular season, the final set of games before next week's MAC Tournament, in which the conference will gather to see which school gets the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio and Toledo are battling for seeding position in the MAC Tournament bracket. Ohio is tied with Kent State for third place in the conference at 10-7. Toledo is tied for fifth place with Eastern Michigan at 9-8. There are other teams below Toledo at 8-9 which, with a win and a Toledo loss, could tie the Rockets at 9-9 in the standings. Ohio is playing for the No. 3 seed in the MAC Tournament at this game, which carries the obvious value of not having to play the No. 1 seed in the semifinals. Toledo would love to move up the seeding leaderboard in the MAC, but the value of this game is more about avoiding a potential seeding fall just before the conference tournament. There's a lot to play for, and as you will see, the markets have priced this game very close to a pick 'em. It should be a very interesting Friday night in Toledo.
Here are the Ohio-Toledo College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Ohio-Toledo Odds
Ohio: -1.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -114
Toledo: +1.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -105
Over: 159.5 (-110)
Under: 159.5 (-110)
How to Watch Ohio vs Toledo
Time: 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Ohio Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Toledo Rockets are playing their worst basketball at the worst possible time. The Rockets were 9-4 in the MAC through 13 league games, but they have lost four in a row to fall to 9-8. Notably, Toledo lost on the road at Buffalo several days ago. Buffalo is the next-to-worst team in the conference, better than only one team, Northern Illinois. NIU is 1-16 in the conference, 5-25 overall. Buffalo is 4-13 in the MAC, 9-21 overall, a genuinely bad team. Buffalo defeated Toledo by 13 points in a game which was never particularly close in the final 10 minutes of regulation. Buffalo established a healthy working margin over Toledo and maintained it to the finish line.
Toledo is in freefall. The Rockets' loss to Buffalo followed a 40-point loss to Kent State in which the roof essentially caved in. There is simply nothing to see in Toledo which inspires any confidence right now. Betting on Ohio makes sense through the specific lens of fading Toledo and not trusting the Rockets at this moment.
Why Toledo Will Cover The Spread/Win
Ohio has not exactly been lighting it up. The Bobcats have lost two of their last three games. One of those two losses was to a Western Michigan team which is below Ohio in the MAC standings and has an 11-19 overall record for the season. If you are thinking of fading Toledo — which is a reasonable instinct — you then have to look at Ohio. You can't necessarily look at one team's struggles without considering what the opponent is also going through. Ohio isn't playing so much better than Toledo, to the point that fading Toledo makes sense in isolation. Neither team is playing well right now, and Toledo is playing at home on Senior Night, which should give the Rockets a real emotional boost. Of course Toledo can win this game, and the Rockets are a home underdog. This sets up well for them.
Final Ohio-Toledo Prediction & Pick
We are leaning Ohio but think this game is a total coin flip. Pass.
Final Ohio-Toledo Prediction & Pick: Ohio -1.5
