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It is the 120th meeting of the Egg Bowl as Ole Miss faces rival Mississippi State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Ole Miss-Mississippi State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The first meeting between these two schools was played in Starkville, Mississippi in 1901, and Mississippi A&M, now Mississippi State, took the first game 21-0. Since then, Ole Miss has one this game 64 times, while losing 46 and 6 ties. The NCAA has also vacated three games, two Ole Miss wins, and one Mississippi State win. Last year, Mississippi State took the win in what would be Mike Leach's last game. They were up eight, but Jackson Dart drove 99 yards to put Ole Miss in a spot to tie the game. Ole Miss would fail on their two-point conversion and Mississippi State would win 24-22.
Ole Miss enters the game sitting at 9-2 on the year and could have a chance at a New Year's Six bowl game. The only two losses of the year have come to Alabama and Georgia, as they have handled the rest of their schedule. Last week, they did start slow against UL Monroe but would end up winning 35-3.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State needs a win to make a bowl. They are 5-6 on the year after getting a win for their new interim head coach last week. It was a game against Southern Miss that they would win 41-20. Still, Mississippi State has just one win in SEC play, and that was a 7-3 win over Arkansas.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss-Mississippi State Odds
Ole Miss: -10.5 (-115)
Mississippi State: +10.5 (-105)
Over: 55.5 (-110)
Under: 55.5 (-110)
How to Watch Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Week 12
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread
Ole Miss is led by their quarterback Jaxson Dart. He comes into the game having passed for 2,888 yards on 194 of 294 passing this year. He has been solid, throwing 19 touchdown passes, and three big times throws according to PFF. Last week, he was great, throwing for 310 yards and three scores. He did not have an interception and just one turnover-worthy throw. On the year, Dart has just five interceptions and eight turnover-worthy throws.
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Dart has also been great on the ground this year. He has run for 516 yards and seven touchdowns. Still, he has fumbled five times, including twice last week. Meanwhile, Quinshon Judkins has been great for the run game. He comes into the game with 934 yards on the ground this year, with 14 touchdowns. Judkins has been amazing after contact this year, with 700 yards after first contact this season.
The receiving game has a trio of receivers who have been great. It starts with Tre Harris, who had brought in 44 receptions for 824 yards and eight scores. Meanwhile, Dayton Wade comes in with 744 yards and four scores. Dayton has been solid after the catch this year, with 352 yards after the catch. Then Jordan Watkins has 734 yards and three scores this year.
Overall, Ole Miss comes in ranked 65th in total defense while ranking 47th in scoring defense on the year. Ole Miss ranks 79th against the run this year while ranking 58th against the pass. Ole Miss does have 39 sacks this year, with eight of them coming from Jared Ivey. He also has 21 quarterback pressures. Meanwhile, Suntraine Perkins and Isaac Ukwu come into the game with five sacks each. In coverage, Trey Washington leads the way, coming in with three interceptions on the year. He has allowed three scores and 325 yards though.
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread
Will Rogers leads the passing attack for Mississippi State. He had missed every gram since the win over Western Michigan in week six but came back last week. In that game, he completed just 12 of 27 passes for 144 yards. Still, he has two touchdowns and did not have an interception or a turnover worthy pass. This year he has completed 118 of 199 passes for 1,417 yards and 12 scores. He has four interceptions on the year, with just five turnover worthy passes.
In the run game, Jo'quavious Marks leads the way. He has 534 yards on the year and has scored four times. Marks also missed time due to an injury but did come back last week. He ran 12 times for 34 yards in that game. Meanwhile, Seth Davis comes in with 356 yards and a score, while Jeffery Pittman comes in with 253 yards on the year and a score.
In the receiving game, Lideatrick Griffin leads the way. He has 45 receptions on the year for 621 yards and four scores. He has been solid after the catch this year, with 367 yards after the catch. Joining him in having a solid year is Zavion Thomas. He comes into the game with 414 yards and a touchdown.
Overall, the Mississippi State defense is 46th in total defense but ranks 82nd in scoring defense. Mississippi State ranks 45th against the run this year while ranking 48th against the pass. The pass rush has produced 28 sacks this year. That is led by Nathaniel Watson, who comes into the game with ten sacks on the year and 32 quarterback pressures. Meanwhile, Jett Johnson has six sacks on 25 pressures this year. In the coverage game, Shawn Preston and Jett Johnson have been solid. Both of them come into the game with three interceptions on the year, while allowing just one touchdown each.
Final Ole Miss- Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
Ole Miss looks like they could be the third-best team in the SEC. They beat LSU, who was able to beat Missouri. That could mean a big-time bowl game for Ole Miss with a win. The Bulldogs offense has been struggling. The Mississippi State offense has not passed for over 200 yards in over a month. The ground game has been solid for them, but if Mississippi State does get stuck on the ground, it will be a win for Ole Miss. Overall, they do not have enough offense this year, and while the Ole Miss defense is not good, they have enough on offense to get the win in this one and cover in the process.
Final Ole Miss-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Ole Miss -10.5 (-110)
