The UFC Paris Main Card is finally here as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. UFC transfer and No. 11-ranked Patricio Pitbull is in action once again welcoming the debut of Belgium's Losene Keita. Check the UFC series for our Pitbull-Keita prediction and pick.
Patricio Pitbull (37-8) has gone 1-1 since joining the UFC earlier in 2025. The Bellator legend dropped his debut in an uncharacteristic performance, but bounced right back with an impressive win over Dan Ige. He now comes in the betting underdog against a debuting prospect. Pitbull stands 5-foot-6 with a 67-inch reach.
Losene Keita (16-1) will make his UFC promotional debut on Saturday, currently riding a five-fight win streak and winning titles in OktagonMMA during that stretch. He also boasts 10 career wins by knockout and will be the surprising betting favorite against a veteran of the sport. Keita stands 5-foot-9 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Patricio Pitbull-Losene Keita Odds
Patricio Pitbull: +180
Losene Keita: -218
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
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Why Patricio Pitbull Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Dan Ige – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 12 KO/TKO, 12 SUB
After landing just 23 strikes against Yair Rodriguez during a totally uncharacteristic UFC debut, Patricio Pitbull returned to his old self against Dan Ige with a much better performance all around. He managed to out-strike a talent boxer like Ige 71-59 while also landing 5/9 takedowns. If he comes in with that same aggression during this fight, he should be able to shock the debuting opponent in Keita.
Pitbull is talented in all areas of the fight and while he's not the same terrorizing threat he was earlier in his career, he's still willing to mix things up in the pocket and change levels into submission grappling. His chin has also held up very well up to this point, so don't expect Keita to threaten him much with a knockout.
Overall, Pitbull has the more well-rounded skill set of these two fighters as long as he's able to show up to the fight with energy and a sense of urgency. Starting strong will be key to his success and the later rounds should see him constantly attacking his opponent to win control time, whether that be on the ground or circling the octagon.
Why Losene Keita Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Ronald Paradeiser – TKO (ground punches, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO
Losene Keita comes into this bout as a highly-touted prospect looking to immediately place himself within the rankings. He's uncommon and unique in his own sense and he posses the rare ability to walk through his opponents without wasting much time. He's very big for the division and the way he takes the center of the octagon is physically imposing in its own right. If he catches a sluggish version of Pitbull on Saturday, this could be a quick finish for the young phenom out of Belgium.
Keita's speed is one of his biggest fighting strengths, parlaying into his lightning-fast reflexes. He's tremendous at stuffing the takedowns and given his longer frame and size advantage over Pitbull, he should be able to negate any wrestling attempts from the veteran. From there, Keita can look to pin Pitbull against the fence and throw haymakers in hopes of finishing this fight.
Ultimately, it doesn't seem as though Keita will be too phased by any pre-fight jitters in making his UFC debut and his status as the younger, fresher talent should bode well for his confidence. If he can fight like his usual self, he should be enough of a matchup problem for Pitbull to handle over three rounds.
Final Patricio Pitbull-Losene Keita Prediction & Pick
This will be a great fight to open the UFC Paris Main Card and we could see these two strikers in a real scrap. Pitbull is the much more experienced and slightly more rounded fighter, but his last two UFC appearances have shown some inconsistencies. He looked dangerous his last time out and if he replicates that performance, he could have a serious chance at the upset here.
However, Losene Keita is much more aggressive in the way he controls the octagon and his physical stature could become a problem for Pitbull. Pitbull struggled against a similar frame with Yair Rodriguez and if Keita continues to press with reckless abandon, he could have a chance to finish this fight early.
For our final prediction, we'll side with the young, rising talent to prevail during this fight. While it's his UFC debut, Pitbull is only three fights into his own UFC stint and I suspect him having a hard time against the forward pressure of Keita.
Final Patricio Pitbull-Losene Keita Prediction & Pick: Losene Keita (-218)
