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It is a battle in Pennsylvania as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Pirates prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
The Phillies come into the series after taking two of three from the Orioles. Still, the Phillies are just 5-5 in their last ten games and are ten games back of the Braves in the division. Their 55-47 record does have them in a wild card spot, but the Marlins are lurking just a half-game behind them. The Phillies are looking to be aggressive at the trade deadline to help them make another postseason run. Currently, they are looking around for some starting pitching to help bolster the rotation.
Meanwhile, the Pirates just won two of three over the Padres. The team that once led the NL Central sits in last place though. They are now 45-57 on the season and are 11.5 games behind the Brewers in the division. This has led the Pirates to begin to trade off assets, starting with their first baseman Carlos Santana, who was traded to the Brewers. This is a major fall from grace for the Pirates. They started the season 20-9 and with the best run differential in the National League. Since then, they are 25-46 and have a -121 run differential.
Here are the Phillies-Pirates MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Pirates Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+106)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-128)
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How To Watch Phillies vs. Pirates
TV: NBCSP/ATTP
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:05 PM ET/ 4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies figured out how to get some runs across the plate in the last two games. They have scored ten runs in the last two games. In their last eight games, they are 3-5. Meanwhile, in the three wins they scored 18 runs. In the five losses, they have scored just 10.
Overall, they are 17th in the majors in runs scored, tenth in batting average, 14th in on-base percentage, and 11th in slugging. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in home runs and RBIs so far this year. He is sixth in the majors in home runs this year, with 26, while driving in 62 runs. Schwarber is still an all-or-nothing player for the Phillies. This month he has five home runs and 19 RBIS while scoring 12 times. Meanwhile, he is hitting just .172 with a .253 on-base percentage. He has 15 hits this month, with eight of them being for extra bases.
Meanwhile, Bryson Stott is having a great month for the Phillies. Stott sits ninth in the majors in batting average at .300 for the year. He is hitting .329 on the month with two home runs and seven RBIs. He also has six doubles and scored 15 times in a month. The most impressive part has been his patience at the plate. He has walked seven times this month and has a .391 on-base percentage this month while striking out just nine times. To top it off, Stott has stolen five bases this month. Joining Stott in hitting well this month is Alec Bohm. Bohm is hitting .320 on the month and has 14 RBIs with the help of two home runs and four doubles. Meanwhile, he has scored 14 times this month.
It will be Zack Wheeler on the mound today for the Phillies. He comes into the day with a 7-5 record and a 3.88 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP. Last time out, Wheeler pitched well. He went seven innings, allowing five hits and just one earned run. Still, the Phillies lost that game as they could not score and fell 1-0 to the Guardians. It is not the third time this year that he has given up one or fewer runs and did not get the win.
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
While the Pirates started the season hot, the offense has come to a halt. They are now 27th in the majors in runs scored, 23rd in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, and 26th in slugging. The hottest bat on the team has been Carlos Santana, who had driven in eight runs in the last week. He is off to Milwaukee though, and now the Pirates need to replace that bat. Jack Suwinski will attempt to replace the bat. He has driven in 14 runs this month with the help of five home runs. Still, he is hitting just .246 on the month with seven runs scored. The major issue for him has been the strikeout. He has struck out 26 times this month and struck out multiple times in a game ten times this month.
The theme of striking out is not just limited to Suwinski. Bryan Reynolds has been struggling in that regard too. He has struck out 21 times this month, including at least once in each of his last six games. Reynolds is hitting just .183 on the month, but when he is hitting, he is hitting well. He has three home runs on the month, driven in seven runs, and scored seven as well. There is also hope that Andrew McCutchen can go back to what he was doing in June. He hit .319 in June, but this month is hitting just .140. Still, it seems like McCutchen is getting back into the grove since coming back from the IL. He has six walks in his last four games to go with three hits and three runs scored.
The best hope for the Pirates to win will come from their pitcher today. Mitch Keller heads to the mound today with a 9-6 record and a 4.01 ERA. While Keller had been solid all year, he has struggled in his last two starts. In his last two starts, he has gone just 11 innings while giving up 14 runs. He also has given up five runs in that time. If Keller can reverse his recent fortune, the Pirates can stay in this game.
Final Phillies-Pirates Prediction & Pick
While the Phillies have not been world-beaters as of late, they have been much better than the Pirates. The pitching edge also goes to the Phillies in this one. Expect them to launch a few home runs in this one to get the win. With how Keller has been pitching, the best play in this game may be on the first-inning run total. The YRFI play is currently -108 and would be worth a look as well.
Final Phillies-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+106)
