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Keller and Gray face off in St. Louis in the series finale! It has been a giant struggle for the Pirates this season, while the Cardinals have struggled to find much consistency, despite having talent. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Pirates-Cardinals Projected Starters
Mitch Keller vs. Sonny Gray
Mitch Keller (1-3) with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed five runs on eight hits with one walk and three strikeouts through five innings.
Away Splits: (1-0) 2.25 ERA
Sonny Gray (3-1) with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed six runs on nine hits with three walks and six strikeouts through 4.1 innings.
Home Splits: (2-1) 4.45 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Cardinals Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-152)
Moneyline: +144
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+126)
Moneyline: -172
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Pirates vs. Cardinals
Time: 1:15 pm ET/10:15 am PT
Article Continues Below
TV: FanDuel Sports Midwest/SportsNet PT
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Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates finished last season with 76-86. They have been awful this season with a 12-24 record. They have lost eight of their previous nine games and five straight coming into this game, including the first in this series. They struggled behind the plate and on the mound last year. This season has not been much better and, in some cases, even worse, with the bats and pitching struggling. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Tommy Pham have been decent despite some of the team's struggles behind the plate. The pitching staff has talent, with Paul Skenes and Andrew Heaney being standouts. The Pirates have genuine talent, but it has been a giant struggle for the 2025 season.
The Pirates are starting Keller on the mound. He has a 1-3 record, a 4.38 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP. He allowed 21 runs on 41 hits with 12 walks and 29 strikeouts through 39 innings across seven starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of 2.4 after those starts. The Pirates have a 2-5 record through those starts, too, showcasing how much the Pirates have struggled this season. Keller has been solid at best individually, but the Cardinals have been red-hot on offense, so this is a giant challenge for him in this game.
The Pirates' offense has struggled this season. They are 26th in the MLB in team batting average at .223 after having a batting average of .234 last season. Despite their inconsistent play, McCutchen, Cruz, and Reynolds have been the biggest standouts. Cruz leads in home runs with eight and OBP at .385. Then, Reynolds leads in RBI with 19 and in total hits with 33. Finally, McCutchen leads in batting average at .253. The Pirates have some solid talent on offense, but a matchup against Gray for St. Louis is a difficult one that might be too much against them.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cardinals were inconsistent last year and barely finished above .500 with an 83-79 record. This season, they have started 17-19 and have won two straight coming into this game, including the first in this series. The Cardinals were a solid offense last season, but they have been red-hot and are the second-best offense behind the plate. Their pitching has struggled and has not changed much from last year to this year. Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, and Jordan Walker have all started red-hot behind the plate. The pitching has been more inconsistent on the mound, but Sonny Gray and Matthew Liberatore have been standouts. The Cardinals are an intriguing team because of their offense, but they need to find consistency.
The Cardinals are starting Sonny Gray on the mound, where he has a 3-1 record, a 4.12 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP up to this point in the season. He has allowed 20 runs on 37 hits with 10 walks and 39 strikeouts across 39.1 innings in his seven starts. Gray is the ace for the Cardinals, and he has a great matchup against a Pirates offense that has struggled for most of the season.
The Cardinals' offense has jumped to being one of the best in the MLB early in the season. They are second in batting average with a .261 average after they had a .248 average last season. Donovan and Conteras have been the best players for this offense this year. Donovan leads in batting average at .336, in OBP at .393, and in total hits with 44. Then, Contreras leads in home runs with five and RBI with 19. They face a solid pitcher in Keller, but based on this offense's firepower, they should have the upper hand on Keller, especially at home.
Final Pirates-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Pirates should keep this game close at first, but the Cardinals are playing better, have the better offense, and have the slightly better pitcher. Pirates keep it close at first, but the Cardinals win and cover late.
Final Pirates-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+126)
