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It is the first drop of the puck in the 2023-24 NHL season as the Nashville Predators face the Tampa Bay Lightning. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Predators-Lightning prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Nashville Predators finished last year at 42-32-8 and had 92 points. That caused them to sit three points behind the Winnipeg Jets, and miss the playoffs. This was the first time they missed the playoffs since the 2013-14 season. It also led to a lot of changes with the Predators. First, the Predators brought Barry Trotz back to the franchise, this time as the GM. After struggling to score, they brought in a new coach who has a much faster place offensive philosophy. The Predators also bring back Filip Forsberg and Roman Jusi. Both of them missed major chunks of time last year but should be healthy this year. To help reshape the roster, the Predators got rid of Matt Duchene and brought in Ryan O'Reilly. He will join the top line and be looking to make an immediate impact.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning entered the season after making it to the Stanley Cup Finals for three straight years. The Lightning would finish the season with a 46-30-6 record, for a total of 98 points. Still, that placed them third in the division, behind Toronto and Boston. That would set up a playoff match-up with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and they would fall in six games. There is a lot to overcome this year if the Lightning are going to make another run. First, they have to survive without Andrei Vasilevkiy, who will be out for at least a month following back surgery. They also have to replace Alex Killorn, who left in the offseason and had 64 points for the team last year. Still, the core of the team is back, with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos all returning to make another run at the cup.
Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Predators vs. Lightning Odds
Nashville Predators: +1.5 (-172)
Tampa Bay Lightning: -1.5 (+142)
Over: 6.5 (-105)
Under: 6.5 (-115)
How to Watch Predators vs. Lightning
Time: 5:30 PM ET/ 1:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN/ESPN+
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Predators Will Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
The Predators open their season with their first of two games this year against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Juuse Saros is expected to be in goal tonight for the first game of the season. Last season he was 33-23-7 with a 2.69 goals-against average and a .919 save percentage. Saros played in three games in the preseason, having a 2.73 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage in that time. Saros started last season slowly and will be looking to start stronger this year. He was 2-4-1 last season in October, with a 2.75 goals against average and a .910 save percentage. Part of the issue early in the year was a lack of support. In his four losses in regulation last October, the Predators scored just three goals.
The Predators attempted to address their goal-scoring issues with two big signings. Ryan O'Reilly joins the team from Toronto. Last year, playing in 53 games between St. Louis and Toronto he scored 30 points, with 16 goals. Still, O'Reilly can be productive. Before last year, he had scored 50 or more points in every season since 2012-2013. In that year, he played just 29 games but scored 20 points. The Predators also added Gustav Nyquist to the rotation. Like O'Reilly last year was a down year. He played just 51 games and scored 27 points. Also like O'Reilly, he is more of an assist-first player and not a primary goal scorer.
The Predators need to find someone to score goals for them. The top goal scorer last year, Matt Duchene, is now in Dallas. Filip Forsberg was second on the team last year, scoring 19 goals in 50 games last season. With him healthy and ready to go, he should be the top goal producer on the team. Behind him was Roman Josi. The defenseman scored 18 goals last season, with eight of those coming on the power play. Covering for the Predators will be about converting opportunities and a strong showing from Saros. They will have a new style of offense, which did now show major production in scoring goals in the preseason, so keeping the game low-scoring will be key in this one.
Why The Lightning Will Cover The Spread
Tonight, the Lightning will send Jonas Johansson to guard the net. He played in just three games last year, starting two of them. He won both of his starts, allowing five goals in the two games, good for a 2.51 goals-against average. Still, the 28-year-old is largely unproven. He has played in just 35 games in his career, with just 27 starts. Johansson was great in the preseason though. He made three starts, giving up just two goals and having two shutouts for the Lightning.
Meanwhile, the Lightning have a potent offense. Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov lead the top line. Kucherov led the team in points last year, with 113. He has 30 goals and 83 assists to lead the way. Point was the primary goal scorer, coming in with 51 goals and 44 assists last year. Finally, Stamkos had 34 goals and 50 assists last season. It is not just the top line. The second line last year produced 58 goals and 67 assists, while the top defensive pairing added 19 goals and 94 assists. The Lightning only have to replace one major offensive piece in Alex Killorn, but that should be doable for this offense.
Still, there is worry about the defensive unit as a whole. The top pairing was solid with Mikhail Sergachev and Victor Hedman, but the rest of the unit struggled. They allowed 3.07 goals per game last year. The Lightning did bring in Calvin De Haan to help, and he will need to step up with an inexperienced goaltender behind him.
Final Predators-Lightning Prediction & Pick
The Lightning should be able to find the net plenty tonight with the top forward unit. The Predators will be adjusting to the new system they have in place. The big issue for Nashville is the second line. The top line will be shut down by Sergachev and Hedman. This means it will be the other three lines that will need to be produced. That is not something the Predators have done well. Take the Lightning to win big on opening night.
Final Predators-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Lightning -1.5 (+142)
