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The MLB season continues as the Boston Red Sox look to pick up the win on the road in Kansas City when they take on the Royals in game one of their series on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Royals prediction and pick.
Red Sox-Royals Projected Starters
Hunter Dobbins vs. Michael Lorenzen
Hunter Dobbins – (2-1) with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP
Last Start: Dobbins came away with the loss against the Twins on Saturday, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings.
2025 Road Splits: This will be Dobbins first start on the road this season.
Michael Lorenzen – (3-3) with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP
Last Start: Lorenzen did not factor into the decision in Sunday's 11-6 win over the Orioles, allowing five runs on seven hits and one walk with five strikeouts over 4.2 innings.
2025 Home Splits: Lorenzen has been dominant at home, where he is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 12 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Royals Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: -108
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-170)
Moneyline: -108
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Royals
Article Continues Below
Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40 PM PT
TV: NESN, MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
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Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
Hunter Dobbins gives the Red Sox a compelling edge heading into Friday’s matchup against Michael Lorenzen and the Royals. Dobbins has shown poise and effectiveness in his early MLB starts, posting a 2-1 record with a 3.78 ERA and a solid 1.32 WHIP over 16.2 innings. His ability to limit walks (just four in three starts) and generate strikeouts (13) suggests he’s capable of keeping the Royals’ bats in check, especially after handling tough lineups like the Twins and White Sox in recent outings. Dobbins’ recent call-up has injected energy into Boston’s rotation, and his command and resilience under pressure, evidenced by escaping bases-loaded jams, are exactly what the Red Sox need to set the tone early.
On the offensive side, while Boston’s lineup has struggled at times this season, averaging 4.3 runs per game, the talent is undeniable, with new additions like Alex Bregman and emerging young stars ready to break out. Michael Lorenzen, despite a respectable 3.48 ERA, has been inconsistent, allowing 7 hits and 5 runs in his most recent start. The Red Sox offense, hungry to rebound from recent slumps, is poised to capitalize on Lorenzen’s tendency to allow baserunners (1.41 WHIP). With Dobbins’ steady hand on the mound and Boston’s offense due for a breakout, expect the Red Sox to have the upper hand against the Royals on Friday.
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Michael Lorenzen and the Royals are primed to take down Hunter Dobbins and the Red Sox on Friday, thanks to a combination of veteran pitching and recent team momentum. Lorenzen, now a steady presence in the Royals’ rotation, has posted a 3-3 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season, showing he can generate swings and misses-he tallied 13 whiffs in a recent outing and has demonstrated the ability to limit damage even when not going deep into games. His experience and adaptability, honed over years as both a starter and reliever, give Kansas City a reliable arm to neutralize a Boston lineup that has struggled mightily with runners in scoring position and late-game situations.
While the Royals’ offense has been criticized as a weakness, the team has caught fire, winning 11 of their last 13 games and surging into the AL Wild Card race. Bobby Witt Jr. remains the catalyst, but the lineup has shown signs of life with timely hitting, as evidenced by an 11-run outburst against Baltimore. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been plagued by strikeouts and have faltered in clutch moments, hitting just .170 in late/close situations this season. With Lorenzen’s stability on the mound and the Royals’ recent offensive surge, Kansas City is well-positioned to outplay the Red Sox and Dobbins on Friday.
Final White Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick
Friday’s matchup favors the Royals, as Michael Lorenzen’s veteran savvy and recent consistency should keep the Red Sox offense at bay. Lorenzen’s ability to induce strikeouts and limit walks will challenge Boston’s hitters, who have struggled with timing and clutch hitting. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s offense, energized by Bobby Witt Jr. and a recent hot streak, is poised to exploit Hunter Dobbins’ relative inexperience. Dobbins may find it tough to contain the Royals’ balanced lineup, especially with Kansas City’s momentum. Expect a close game, but ultimately, Lorenzen and the Royals’ timely hitting will secure a hard-fought victory.
Final Red Sox-Royals Prediction & Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-108), Under 9 (-110)
