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It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Brewers prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Reds-Brewers.
The Cincinnati Reds have had a very rough 48-hour period preceding Thursday's game against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds did something remarkable, rare, and difficult: They not only got shut out in consecutive home games, they lost 1-0 in consecutive home games to the Texas Rangers. There is no worse loss in baseball than a 1-0 loss. Outstanding pitching from the starter and the bullpen is completely wasted. Doing so on back-to-back days is the pit of misery. The Reds pulled it off. What makes the 1-0 losses even worse is that they came against the Rangers, a team with a very stacked batting order. Limiting the Rangers to two runs in two games is a lot harder — and therefore more impressive — than doing the same thing to a weak-hitting team such as the Marlins or Pirates. The Reds wasting elite pitching like that is a true gut punch.
Anyone who follows baseball closely knows that Elly De La Cruz is a National League MVP candidate. He has received plenty of discussion in that conversation in the early stages of the season. An offense with an “aircraft carrier” type of player should not crater like that. First-year manager Terry Francona is facing the first particularly urgent and substantial challenge of his tenure in Cincinnati.
Reds-Brewers Projected Starters
Nick Lodolo vs. Nestor Cortes
Nick Lodolo (1-0) was solid in his first start of the season. Not walking anyone is a very encouraging way for Lodolo to begin the year. The Reds should be able to count on him for a lot of quality starts this season. If his first game is an indicator of what is to come, Lodolo should be able to keep the Reds in the National League Central title chase into September.
Last Start: March 29 vs San Francisco Giants — 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Nestor Cortes (0-1) had the worst start of any starting pitcher making his first start of the season. It does not get worse than allowing five home runs, four in the first inning, and three in the first three at-bats. That's what happened to Cortes, who simply did not have anything to offer on a day when his former team, the New York Yankees, ambushed him with early swings against meatball “get me over” pitches. Now we find out if Cortes is capable of making a course correction, or if he is still a uniquely vulnerable pitcher. This is a very important moment for him and the Brewers in the first week of the new season.
Last Start: March 29 at New York Yankees — 2 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 5 HR, 5 BB, 2 K
Here are the Reds-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Brewers Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+160)
Moneyline: +100
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-194)
Moneyline: -118
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How to Watch Reds vs Brewers
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET/4:40 p.m. PT
TV: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio (Reds) | FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin (Brewers)
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
Nick Lodolo is a better and more trustworthy pitcher than Nestor Cortes right now. Lodolo set the bar high in his first start, while Cortes could not have set the bar any lower. Even if Cortes improves to a modest degree, he still won't be good enough to win. Cortes would need to be excellent to give the Brewers a reasonable chance of winning. Cortes being only moderately better than his first start would still be mediocre overall — maybe three runs allowed in four innings — and that would put Lodolo and the Reds in the driver's seat.
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Brewers have finally bounced back from their atrocious start with a couple of wins over the Kansas City Royals. That should calm everyone down in Milwaukee and in the dugout. The Brewers should be able to settle in and become the team they know they can be.
The Reds, meanwhile, haven't scored in their last 18 innings. This is a batting order Nestor Cortes can handle.
Final Reds-Brewers Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to the Reds, but neither team inspires any trust at all — the Reds with their lack of hitting, the Brewers with Cortes's lack of pitching. Pass.
Final Reds-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Reds moneyline
