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The College Football Playoffs continue with some quarterfinal matchups, with Texas taking on Arizona State in the Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Texas lost the SEC Championship but won their first playoff matchup to advance to face Big 12 champion Arizona State in their first game of the playoff after a first-round bye. The downfall of the bye is that Arizona State hasn't played since December 7, which makes this the classic debate of rest vs. rust. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Texas-Arizona State prediction and pick.
Texas-Arizona State Last Game – Matchup History
Texas and Arizona State don't have an extensive history against each other, but they did take part in an epic matchup in the 2007 Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns won the game 52-34, with Jamaal Charles rushing for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Texas nearly set a bowl game record, rushing for 300 yards, the fourth-most all-time. Colt McCoy was the starting quarterback for the Longhorns, but he threw for just 174 yards.
Overall Series: Texas 1-0
Here are the Tennessee-Ohio State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas-Arizona State Odds
Texas: -12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -500
Arizona State: +12.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +380
Over: 51 (-110)
Under: 51 (-110)
How to Watch Texas vs. Arizona State
Time: 1 PM ET/10 AM PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread/Win
Texas has been succeeding against teams not named the Georgia Bulldogs, which could serve them well when playing the champion of the Big 12. They may have had some tough times against SEC teams, but Arizona State won't have the same talent level on the team. It doesn't mean that the Longhorns will stroll to a victory, but they could be able to jump on the Sun Devils early after three weeks off and run away with this game.
Why Arizona State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Arizona State tore apart the Big 12, which may not carry over well to playing against an SEC team. The Sun Devils now covered six straight games, including their 45-19 blowout win over Iowa State in the conference championship matchup. Arizona State entered that game as a 1.5-point underdog but significantly covered that spread. It also carries over to their win over Arizona in the rivalry game, where they were 7.5-point favorites but won by 42 points. Texas hasn't had as convincing results, failing to cover the spread in six of their last ten games despite winning eight of ten outright.
Texas must rely on their rushing attack like in the 2007 Holiday Bowl. Quinn Ewers has been a shell of his former self, averaging 229 yards per game over his last five with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. The yards per game average is slightly skewed thanks to a 358-yard performance in the SEC Championship loss to Georgia. The bad news for Texas is that Arizona State has the 28th-best rushing defense in the nation, allowing only 117.5 yards per game and 3.8 yards/rush. It isn't easy to like Texas' chances if they have to rely on Ewers.
Final Texas-Arizona State Prediction & Pick
The Longhorns will be a popular pick thanks to the talent gap, but the Sun Devils have defied the odds all season. Texas hasn't run away with any of their games, while Arizona State has been easily covering spreads. Texas' run game might need to carry the load if Ewers struggles again, and that's the type of game where Arizona State can find a way to keep it close.
Final Texas-Arizona State Prediction & Pick: Arizona State +12.5 (-110)
