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The Grizzlies host the Thunder on Thursday in Game 3! The Thunder are playing like the best team in the NBA and have dominated these first two games, while the Grizzlies have talent, but are in desperate need of a win to make this a series. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Thunder-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
The Thunder finished the year with a 68-14 record and have dominated the first two games against the Grizzlies. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like the NBA MVP, and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren also make up a great core for the Thunder. Their defense has been elite, and defense travels even with the series going to Memphis, the Thunder have the upper hand.
The Grizzlies finished with a 48-34 record and are desperate for a win after losing Game 1 by 51 points and Game 2 by 17 points. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane are the keys to getting back on track. They have so much potential as a team and can make this series competitive, but it won't be easy. Those three must start fast and play well for the Grizzlies to make this competitive.
Here are the Thunder-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Thunder-Grizzlies Game 3 Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -8.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -375
Memphis Grizzlies: +8.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +300
Over: 227 (-110)
Under: 227 (-110)
How To Watch Thunder vs. Grizzlies NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 9:30 pm ET/6:30 pm PT
TV: TNT, TruTV, Max
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Thunder Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Thunder's offense has been highly consistent and dominated at home in Games 1 and 2. In the postseason, they are first in scoring at 124.5 points per game, seventh in field goal percentage at 46.8%, and 11th in three-point percentage at 34.4%.
Six different Thunder players are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being the biggest star and the engine that drives this offense. Despite being the MVP favorite, he averages 21 points per game, and the scoring leader is Williams, averaging 22 points per game. Williams is also the assists leader, averaging 5.5 assists per game, while Gilgeous-Alexander is second, averaging five per game.
The Thunder have balance and have been efficient on offense in the series. They have the offense to score all over this Memphis defense and have proven it already. Memphis needs to step up on this side of the court.
The Thunder's defense has been outstanding this year and the deciding factor in both games. They were third in scoring defense at 89.5 points per game, first in field goal defense at 38.6%, and second in three-point defense at 24.6%.
The frontcourt has been tremendous and a significant strength for the Thunder. Holmgren is the best rebounder and block leader, averaging 10.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. Oklahoma City's on-ball defense has also been excellent, with six different defenders averaging at least one steal, and Jalen Williams is the steals leader, averaging two per game.
This defense can shut down any offense in the NBA. They dominated these two games and can do it again with a defense that can also travel in Memphis.
Why the Grizzlies Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Grizzlies' offense was one of the best in the NBA this season, but they have struggled in these two games. In the postseason, they are 14th in scoring offense, averaging 89.5 points per game, 16th in field-goal percentage at 38.6%, and 15th in three-point shooting at 24.6% from behind the arc.
Only three Grizzlies players average more than double digits in scoring, with Morant being the scoring leader, averaging 20 points per game. He is also the engine that makes everything go on this offense, averaging five assists per game as the leader. Jackson Jr. is second in scoring, averaging 15 points, and Bane rounds out the top three, averaging 14 points per game.
Morant, Jackson Jr., and Bane make all of this work on offense, but they have struggled to find much consistency. Memphis has a great offense statistically, but its backs are against the wall coming into this game.
The Grizzlies' defense has been a step behind their offense this season and has had all sorts of issues in the first two games. In the postseason, they are 16th in points allowed at 124.5 per game, 10th in total field-goal percentage defense at 46.8% from the field, and sixth in three-point defense at 34.4% from behind the arc.
The Grizzlies' frontcourt has been a strength this season, but they have been pushed around more recently. Zach Edey is the team's best rebounder, averaging eight per game. Three players average at least one block, and Jay Huff is the team leader with two per game. This perimeter defense has also been solid, with three players tied for the team lead at one steal per game.
The Grizzlies have had consistency issues all season, and the Thunder punched them in the mouth in these first two games. This defense needs to be the difference maker.
Final Thunder-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
The Thunder are just better. I think Memphis puts up a fight at home, but the Thunder are too good and pull away late. The Thunder win and cover to get to a 3-0 series lead.
Final Thunder-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Thunder -8.5 (-112)
