The UFC Perth: Ulberg vs. Reyes Main Card is finally here as we're set for a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Australia's own Tom Nolan will take on the new prospect Charlie Campbell. Check our UFC odds for the Nolan-Campbell prediction and pick.
Tom Nolan (9-1) has gone 3-1 inside the UFC since debuting in 2024. While the DWCS product lost his debut fight against Nikolas Motta, he's managed three-straight wins in the time since, his last two coming by unanimous decision. Now, he comes in the short betting favorite on home soil. Nolan stands 6-foot-3 with a 73-inch reach.
Charlie Campbell (9-2) will make his third UFC walk following a 2-0 start since 2023. He earned a ‘Performance of the Night' knockout during his debut and followed it up with a unanimous decision over Trevor Peek. Now, he'll look to capitalize as the betting underdog for the first time in his career. Campbell stands six feet tall with a 72.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth Odds: Tom Nolan-Charlie Campbell Odds
Tom Nolan: -148
Charlie Campbell: +142
Over 2.5 rounds: +140
Under 2.5 rounds: -180
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Why Tom Nolan Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Viacheslav Borshchev – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Tom Nolan has been on a hot streak through this Lightweight Division with three-straight wins, out striking his last two opponent in totals of 111-92 and 104-89. He's extremely active on the feet and isn't afraid to mix his kicking game as well, often utilizing the front teep kick to keep his opponents at distance. He'll also be the taller fighter once again, something he's grown accustomed to in this division as he's typically punching down at opponents.
While Nolan is landing 5.82 significant strikes per minute, he's also absorbing 4.85 per minute at a 46% defense rate. This is compensated by his solid chin and ability to take a punch and still march forward, but he'll still have to be wary of the one-punch knockout power from his opponent. Tom Nolan will likely favor a kickboxing bout at range where he can use his physical attributes to create distance and fall into a striking rhythm.
Overall, Tom Nolan has the potential to be the more active striker during this fight if he's able to avoid the big outbursts from Campbell. His opponent has knockout power, but his cardio will wear if Nolan is able to remain technical with his kickboxing. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the skill set of Tom Nolan.
Why Charlie Campbell Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Alexander Volkanovski – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 12 SUB
Charlie Campbell has made a big splash into the division with his dominant performances in the cage and viral post-fight interview moments following wins. He's a brash, fearless striker that's willing to close the distance from the opening bell and put his opponents on their back foot. He's not afraid to get hit or strike from close quarters, so his power and precision will be his biggest focus throughout this fight.
Campbell was original slated to fight Mauricio Ruffy for this next bout but had to withdraw due to undisclosed reasons. The hope is that he's fully healthy and dialed-in on his weight cut as he'll be heading into hostile territory against a hometown fighter. As mentioned previously, Campbell's striking output is right around Nolan's, but his striking defense has proven to be much more solid through his first two fights.
If we see a version of Charlie Campbell that is methodical, aggressive, and selective with his striking, there's no reason he should be able to run through Tom Nolan as the short underdog. His prospect of fighting Ruffy gives the impression the UFC is trying to fast-track him, so this is certainly a massive litmus test for Campbell and his ability to handle pressure.
Final Tom Nolan-Charlie Campbell Prediction & Pick
Tom Nolan comes into this fight with the support of the crowd, coupled with his superior kickboxing skills. From a Muay Thai standpoint, Nolan has the perfect frame and is very crisp with every strike he throws. He'll have a strong advantage in the kicking game and is likely to dictate the striking distance throughout this fight.
However, Charlie Campbell has shown serious poise through two fights and he's looking like a serious prospect in this division. If he's able to throw the timing of Nolan off even a little, he should have openings along the fence and within the pocket to land damaging strikes.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Charlie Campbell and his value as the betting underdog. With the total sitting at 2.5 rounds and the “under” juiced to -180, it suggest we could see a finish in this fight, likely favoring Campbell given Nolan's recent streak of decisions.
Final Tom Nolan-Charlie Campbell Prediction & Pick: Charlie Campbell (+142); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-180)
