Contender Series Week 4 kicks off with a fight between Tommy McMillen and David Mgoyan in the featherweight division on Tuesday. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our McMillen-Mgoyan prediction and pick.
Tommy McMillen (8-0) is an undefeated prospect, winning and finishing all eight opponents, most recently choking out Dumar Roa in less than two minutes, coming into his first appearance on Dana White's Contender Series. Now, McMillen aims to keep his momentum rolling against David Mgoyan to remain unbeaten and secure his contract on Tuesday’s Contender Series.
David Mgoyan (7-0) enters unbeaten, recently dominating Luciano Ramos with a first-round TKO at Tuff-N-Uff 144 before winning a unanimous decision over John De Jesus in February. Now, Mgoyan looks to earn his eighth straight win by taking out Tommy McMillen this Tuesday on the Contender Series.
UFC Contender Series Odds: Tommy McMillen-David Mgoyan Odds
Tommy McMillen: +140
David Mgoyan: -180
Over 1.5 Rounds: -145
Under 1.5 Rounds: +114
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Why Tommy McMillen will win
- Last Fight: (W) Dumar Roa – SUB R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (3 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Tommy McMillen is favored to beat David Mgoyan on week 4 of Contender Series based on his dynamic striking and strong wrestling base. Undefeated at 8-0, McMillen has shown the ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground, with three knockouts and five submissions on his record.
Training at Red Hawk MMA under Tim Welch alongside former UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley, McMillen benefits from world-class striking strategy and elite fight preparation. His ability to blend powerful combinations with well-timed takedowns makes him unpredictable and dangerous in all phases of the fight.
Despite Mgoyan’s own undefeated run, McMillen’s finishing rate and explosiveness set him apart. McMillen’s wrestling background allows him to dictate where the fight takes place, stifling his opponent’s attacks and initiating scrambles to set up submissions or ground-and-pound.
McMillen has also shown resilience by overcoming setbacks, including an AC joint injury before a scheduled Contender Series bout last year. Training with championship-level coaching and partners has further sharpened his all-around skills for high-pressure situations.
Expect McMillen to use dynamic striking to create openings and rely on his wrestling when necessary, ultimately overwhelming Mgoyan and earning a UFC contract with another decisive finish on fight night.
Why David Mgoyan will win
- Last Fight: (W) Luciano Ramos – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
David Mgoyan is favored to beat Tommy McMillen on week 4 of Contender Series through his relentless wrestling and top-tier grappling skills. Mgoyan’s suffocating top pressure allows him to dictate the pace of the fight, constantly pinning opponents to the canvas and nullifying their offensive options with stifling control.
His ground-and-pound is heavy and damaging, forcing McMillen to defend rather than advance his own attacks. Once Mgoyan secures a takedown, he punishes his rivals with powerful strikes from the top, steadily wearing down their cardio and sapping their confidence as the rounds progress.
McMillen is a strong finisher with both submissions and knockouts on his record, but he has not faced an opponent with the same caliber of wrestling and positional control that Mgoyan possesses. Mgoyan’s style is built around grinding pressure, which neutralizes submission threats and saps explosive power from strikers and grapplers alike.
As the fight wears on, Mgoyan’s methodical approach drains McMillen’s energy, creating openings for either a decisive TKO from ground-and-pound or a dominant decision victory. With his high-level wrestling and imposing top game, Mgoyan’s skill set gives him a decisive edge on the Contender Series stage.
Final Tommy McMillen-David Mgoyan Prediction & Pick
In the upcoming matchup, McMillen’s striking arsenal will be tested against Mgoyan’s relentless wrestling and grappling. While McMillen (8-0) boasts a versatile, well-rounded striking game with a 62.5% submission rate and a history of early finishes, Mgoyan’s (7-0) grappling expertise and top control will be the deciding factor.
Mgoyan’s ability to pressure opponents relentlessly and maintain dominant positions will neutralize McMillen’s striking advantage. Expect Mgoyan to implement a grappling-heavy game plan, using takedowns to bring the fight to the ground and smother McMillen’s offense.
Despite McMillen’s finish rate and skill on the feet, Mgoyan’s superior wrestling control will dictate the pace and terrain of the fight. He will likely wear down McMillen through constant pressure, limiting striking opportunities and controlling the action with top position.
Ultimately, the fight should go the distance, with Mgoyan’s grappling dominance and relentless control winning him the decision. McMillen’s striking threat is notable, but Mgoyan’s wrestling and grappling prowess should have walk away with the decisive victory potentially securing his spot in the UFC's featherweight division.
Final Tommy McMillen-David Mgoyan Prediction & Pick: David Mgoyan (-180), Over 1.5 Rounds (-145)
