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It is the opener for Mountain West conference play as Utah State faces Air Force. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Utah State-Air Force prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Utah State enters the game at 1-1 on the year. The Aggies dropped their opening match to Iowa 24-14. Still, even in the loss, it was a strong statement for Utah State. They managed 14 points in the game with Cooper Legas throwing for 213 yards. In contrast, Iowa State scored just 13 points against Iowa while their quarterback, Rocco Becht, threw for 203 yards.
Utah State also bounced back with a solid win last week, taking out Idaho State 79-28. The Aggies scored six touchdowns and a field goal in the second quarter alone, including twice in 20 seconds, to take a 51-14 lead into the half.
Meanwhile, the Air Force comes into the game 2-0. The Falcons started the season with a 42-7 win over Robert Morris before facing Sam Houston. The game with Sam Houston saw some offensive troubles though. Air Force scored just once in the first half on a second-quarter field goal to give the Falcons a 3-0 lead. Going into the fourth quarter, it was all tied at 3. Early in the quarter, Matthew Dapore hit his second 42-yard field goal of the game. Then, on the next drive, the Falcons made it to the red zone for the first time and converted, scoring a touchdown to seal the game.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Utah State-Air Force Odds
Utah State: +9.5 (-115)
Air Force: -9.5 (-105)
Over: 46.5 (-110)
Under: 46.5 (-110)
How to Watch Utah State vs. Air Force
TV: CBS SportNetwork
Stream: CBS Sports App
Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Utah State Will Cover The Spread
For Utah State to cover, it has to start with Cooper Legas. He played well against a strong Iowa defense in his first game. He went 32-for-48 for 213 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Still, he threw two other turnover-worthy passes and experienced three drops in the game, while two balls were batted down at the line of scrimmage. The big issue was pressure. He was pressured 14 times on just 19 dropbacks, leading to one sack.
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He got much better protection in his next game. Legas was pressured just three times on 19 dropbacks, leading to two scrambles for positive yardage and a sack. The other result was with time he went 14-for-16 for 124 yards and a score in the game.
The pass-blocking improvement was massive in the Aggies' two games. In the first game, PFF gave the pass blocking a grade of 23.7, versus 78.4 in the second game. They also improved in run blocking, and there were results there as well. Robert Briggs Jr. was a huge beneficiary of the better blocking. In the game against Iowa, he ran twice for 7 yards. His average spot of first contact was under 2 yards past the line of scrimmage. In the game against Idaho State, he ran nine times for 101 yards with an average depth of first control over 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. He also scored in the game and had four carries over 10 yards.
The defense also made a massive improvement. In the game against Idaho State, the Utah State defense had 21 quarterback pressures but only ended up with two sacks. Paul Fitzgerald led the way in the game with four quarterback pressures and a sack in the game.
The pressure also led to some bad passes. Utah State came away with two interceptions in the game, returning both of them for touchdowns. Still, there is some work to be done. The defense missed 20 tackles in the game with Idaho State. The Aggies were much surer in tackling again Iowa. If Utah State can combine the pressure from this game with the tackling from the first, the Aggies could come away with a solid defensive outing.
Why the Air Force Will Cover The Spread
While Utah State will be focusing on continued improvement, Air Force has to get back to basics on offense. Air Force did not have a great ground game in their game against Sam Houston. Owen Burk ran 18 times in the game for 72 yards and a score. While he did have one run over ten 10 and also had an average of 1 yard per carry, the line did not help him much. His average depth of first contact was just over one yard past the line of scrimmage.
Further, Zac Larrier did not have a good game on the ground either. He had 19 designed runs but managed just 62 yards on the day. He was averaging just 3.0 yards per carry on the game, while 1.62 of those came after contact.
Further, Larrier had trouble securing the ball. Larrier fumbled twice in the game, part of three fumbles in the running game for Air Force. Larrier also struggled in the passing game. He was just 1-for-3 passing in the game for 14 yards. He was pressured on three of seven dropbacks in the game, leading to two sacks and two scrambles for positive yardage. Larrier was also not helped out by his wide receivers. Both of his incompletions in the game were due to dropped balls.
While the offense struggled, the defense did improve in its game with Sam Houston. Bo Richter was a monster in the game. He played all 45 snaps, coming away with nine quarterbacks pressured, two sacks, and three quarterback hits. He also had four stops for offensive failures. Meanwhile, Alec Mock finished his game with eight tackles and five assists. He had six stops for offensive failures, and the only pass caught in his coverage was stopped for negative 1 yards. Further, the defense allowed just 44 yards in passing to covered receivers.
Final Utah State-Air Force Prediction & Pick
Air Force struggled heavily last week, especially on offense. Still, Air Force led the nation in total yards allowed per game at just 118. The Falcons have allowed an average of 5.0 points per game this year. Utah State will be the best offense they have faced, but the defense will still be solid. Meanwhile, Utah State was solid against the run last week, and as long as they tackle well, they will keep the score low. With a low-scoring game, expect the game to be tight. Take Utah State and the points while the total goes under.
Final Utah State-Air Force Prediction & Pick: Utah State +9.5 (-115) and Under 46.5 (-110)
