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In his first fight since losing his belt to Terence Crawford, Israil Madrimov (10-1-1) returns to seek another title reign against WBC interim super welterweight champion Vergil Ortiz Jr. (22-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Vergil Ortiz Jr.-Israil Madrimov prediction and pick.
Ortiz, 26, is coming off a majority decision win over Serhii Bohachuk to claim his first world title. The win gave him his first victory by decision after winning his first 21 professional fights by knockout. It also capped off a perfect 3-0 year for Ortiz in 2024 after sitting out all of 2023 due to various health concerns.
Madrimov, 30, suffered the first loss of his professional career against Crawford in the main event of Riyadh Season's inaugural event in the United States. Despite the loss, Madrimov was much more competitive than most predicted, forcing Crawford to go the distance for the first time since 2017.
Here are the Vergil Ortiz Jr.-Israil Madrimov odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Vergil Ortiz Jr.-Israil Madrimov Odds
Vergil Ortiz Jr.: -124
Israil Madrimov: -102
Over 10.5 Rounds: -215
Under 10.5 Rounds: +164
How to Watch Vergil Ortiz Jr. vs. Israil Madrimov
Time: 11 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. PT
Fight ring walk time (estimated): 1:45 p.m. ET / 10:45 a.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
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Why Vergil Ortiz Jr. Will Win
Since moving up to super welterweight in 2024, Ortiz's evidently maintained his power and speed, with two first-round knockouts in his last three fights. He also proved his cardio and durability in his most recent win over Bohachuk, in which he had to overcome two flash knockdowns.
The fight with Bohachuk caused some to temporarily halt the Ortiz hype train due to the struggling nature of his majority decision victory. While Bohachuk exposed some holes in Ortiz's clinch game by eliminating the space that makes him so dangerous, that is functionally not Madrimov's game. Madrimov loves to pressure but does not love the phone booth the way Bohachuk does, which is how he scored both of his knockdowns against Ortiz. Madrimov does his best work at range, where his awkward movement does its most damage.
While Madrimov is a difficult style for any fighter to deal with over 12 rounds, he leaves a lot of defensive openings with his non-conventional defense. Few boxers capitalize on openings more than Ortiz, whose pace and blistering speed are for any opposing style.
Why Israil Madrimov Will Win
As Terence Crawford discovered in their last fight, Madrimov is a difficult puzzle to solve. His constant movement and awkward feints create openings but can be difficult to time. A fighter as aggressive as Ortiz could find himself catching a lot of air against the unorthodox approach of Madrimov, which could easily lead to pent-up frustration.
The frustration built up for Crawford, who looked uncharacteristically timid and ended with just 95 punches landed through 12 rounds. That included just 55 power punches, never exceeding eight in a single round. Ortiz typically takes a more aggressive approach but is significantly less accomplished than Crawford, a consensus top-five pound-for-pound boxer in the world.
Behind his movement-based style, Madrimov's cardio matches up with any top super welterweight. Ortiz has only gone the distance once in his career, which marked the only occasion he even reached the 10th round. Ortiz also loves to target the body to set up his finishes, but with Madrimov's low hands and constant level changes, his torso is often hard to reach.
Final Vergil Ortiz Jr.-Israil Madrimov Prediction & Pick
As much praise as Madrimov received for the issues he gave Crawford, Ortiz brings a completely different style to the table. Crawford fought like a fighter who saw the Canelo Alvarez money fight ahead of him and just wanted to come out on top. Ortiz has never taken a single round off in his career and only has one speed in him.
Madrimov is tough to figure out, but many previous opponents of Ortiz had the same tale before the Texan ran through them. The biggest concern of Ortiz's trail-blazing record was his potential cardio issues, but in his last fight, he out-landed Bohachuk in the final two rounds to swing the decision. His primary obstacle in that fight was the two knockdowns, but Madrimov does not pose as much of a power threat, particularly not in close quarters.
Against Crawford, Madrimov landed just 19 jabs across 12 rounds. An opponent with a defensive vision as crisp as Ortiz has historically not let such an approach be successful. More often than not, Ortiz manages to turn his fights into a brawl. If that happens again, Madrimov is not as comfortable in that type of battle as he is darting in from a distance.
Final Vergil Ortiz Jr.-Israil Madrimov Prediction & Pick: Vergil Ortiz Jr. (-124)
