Noche UFC: Diego Lopes versus Jean Silva continues with the prelims with a fight between Zachary Reese and Sedriques Dumas in the middleweight division at Noche UFC on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Reese-Dumas prediction and pick.
Zachary Reese (9-2) enters Noche UFC following a bounce-back win over Duško Todorović (UD, May 31, 2025). Previously, he suffered a first-round KO loss to Azamat Bekoev at UFC 311 in January. Reese stands at 3-2 in UFC competition and fights to keep momentum this weekend.
Sedriques Dumas (10-3) enters Noche UFC after a first-round KO loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 314 in April. Before that, he edged Denis Tiuliulin by unanimous decision in August 2024. Dumas is 3-3 in the UFC, seeking stability as he faces Reese this weekend.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC odds: Zachary Reese-Sedriques Dumas odds
Zachary Reese: -238
Sedriques Dumas: +195
Over 1.5 rounds: +124
Under 1.5 rounds: -160
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Why Zachary Reese will win
- Last Fight: (W) Dusko Todorovic – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 (5 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Zachary Reese’s superior finishing instincts and diverse offensive arsenal make him a nightmare stylistic matchup for Sedriques Dumas this weekend. Reese lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy, nearly doubling Dumas’ output and connecting at a far more efficient clip.
Reese’s physicality and grappling prowess are also decisive advantages. He averages 2.88 takedowns per 15 minutes with 58% accuracy, compared to Dumas’ 1.25 per 15 at just 36% accuracy. This ability to control position and impose damage on the mat will expose Dumas’ suspect 40% takedown defense and limit his counter-kicking game.
Most critically, Reese’s reputation as a fast starter—seven first-round finishes in nine wins—directly targets Dumas’ well-known vulnerability to early pressure. Both of Dumas’ recent KO losses came inside the opening round, and his tendency to start slow gives Reese a window to punish him with early aggression.
With greater finishing upside, a multi-layered attack, and power to capitalize on Dumas’ lapses, Reese is primed to overwhelm his opponent. Expect Reese to set the pace early and threaten the finish before Dumas has a chance to settle in.
Why Sedriques Dumas will win
- Last Fight: (L) Michal Oleksiejzcuk – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Sedriques Dumas can win at Noche UFC by leveraging his reach, defensive reflexes, and counter-striking to disrupt Zachary Reese’s pressure game. Dumas boasts a 79-inch reach and excels at evading and returning fire, with a 55% significant strike defense rate that outpaces Reese’s.
If Dumas keeps the bout standing, his accurate body and head kicks could sap Reese’s cardio and limit his explosive entries. Unlike past opponents, Dumas rarely overcommits, preferring to weather early aggression before landing crisp counters with his hands and feet.
Dumas’ game plan should revolve around lateral movement to force Reese into striking exchanges at range, where Dumas can capitalize on his length. His proven ability to survive deep rounds—average fight time of 8:33—stands in contrast to Reese, who fades if unable to secure quick finishes.
Should the fight go beyond the opening round, Dumas’ discipline and patience become significant weapons against Reese’s inconsistencies. By avoiding early mistakes, targeting Reese’s body, and defending takedowns just enough to frustrate the favorite, Dumas can chip away, score from distance, and secure a statement decision win.
Final Zachary Reese-Sedriques Dumas prediction & pick
Zachary Reese is the clear betting favorite to win against Sedriques Dumas at Noche UFC, and the matchup sets up well stylistically for the powerful Texan. With a 9-2 record, Reese has impressed with his ability to push an aggressive pace and finish fights early, connecting on 54% of his significant strikes while out-landing Dumas nearly two-to-one. He also holds a substantive wrestling edge, averaging 2.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 58% accuracy, and is far more dangerous in submission scenarios.
Dumas, meanwhile, enters as a live but vulnerable underdog, owning a 10-3 record but with a history of early finishes against him. His 45% striking accuracy and 55% significant strike defense are respectable, but his 40% takedown defense—especially when paired with Reese's wrestling intensity—is a concern. If Dumas can keep the fight standing and extend it into deeper rounds, his counter-striking and reach could threaten Reese, whose cardio and defense drop noticeably after the opening frame.
Ultimately, Reese’s ability to close distance, impose his pace, and drag the fight to the mat are likely to dictate the action. Expect Reese to pressure early, mix his boxing and wrestling, and threaten with submissions if Dumas tries to tie up. Barring a well-timed counter from Dumas, look for Reese to secure a finish in the first half of the bout, adding another surge to his middleweight ascent.
Final Zachary Reese-Sedriques Dumas Prediction & Pick: Zachary Reese (-238), Under 1.5 Rounds (-160)
