The Buffalo Bills Week 4 game against their AFC East rival Miami Dolphins is the best game on the NFL slate this weekend. Ahead of this heavyweight matchup, let’s make some bold Bills predictions.

Josh Allen and the Bills have righted the ship after a disastrous Week 1 overtime loss to the New York Jets. In the last two weeks, Buffalo has beaten the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders by a combined score of 75-13. They’ve done this by committing to the run game, playing better defense, and making sure Allen plays within himself. This is the formula for the Bills to win games.

While the Bills racked up an impressive score line in their last two games, the Dolphins posted an almost identical number in just Week 3, beating the Denver Broncos 70-20. This historical outburst shows just how dangerous the Dolphins are. With Tua Tagovailoa healthy and Tyreek Hill performing at a historic level, the Miami offense is the best in football right now.

This Bills-Dolphins game in Week 4 could be a clash of the two best teams in the league. Sure, last year’s Super Bowl opponents and the San Francisco 49ers would have something to say about that, but you can absolutely make that case. So, before the best game of the 2023 season to date, let’s make some bold Bills Week 4 predictions.

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3. Terrel Bernard gets tested

The biggest question mark on the Bills defense heading into the 2023 season was whether the team could find a competent replacement for linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. There were several suitors for the position, but second-year LB Terrel Bernard eventually won the job.

Bernard had some early-season struggles but has really come on in the last two games. Against the Raiders and Commanders, the young LB recorded eight tackles, 2.0 sacks, two QB hits, two passes defended, and two interceptions.

This week will be different.

Sean McDermott’s defense doesn’t have the speed at cornerback to matchup with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle one-on-one (and really, who does?), so the head coach will need to keep a safety over the top. That leaves much more work for Bernard and Matt Milano on both the run and pass games.

The first Bills Week 4 prediction for the Dolphins game is that we will find out what Bernard is made of this week, and Bill Mafia will like what they see.

2. Josh Allen is (mostly) boring

The problem with Josh Allen is that he is too talented.

Allen is 6-foot-5, 240 pounds, and can sling it 70 yards without all that much effort. He is fast and strong and athletic enough to leap defenders in a single bound. Allen can do pretty much everything on a football field, and he knows it.

The problem is, while playing quarterback at the highest level, you can’t try and make the most incredible play possible every down. Defenses are just too good these days to get away with that on a regular basis.

In Week 1, with Aaron Rodgers out and Zach Wilson Zach-Wilson-ing things for the Jets, Allen tried to land the knockout blow on every play. That’s how he ended up throwing three picks to the same player.

In subsequent weeks, Allen flipped his script, and instead of playing like a game manager 10% of the time and Superman 90% of the time, he is now 90% game manager and 10% Superman. That’s the ratio where the Bills win games.

Allen needs to hand the ball off, check down to his outlet receivers when the downfield pass-catchers are covered, and only take off in select moments. Most of the time. There is still that 3rd-and-8 with a free pass rusher in your face when he can throw it side-arm 30 yards and hit Stefon Diggs in stride.

Without that, he’s just not Josh Allen, and the Bills will always need peak Josh Allen at times. On Sunday, though, look for Allen to save that for the big moments.

1. Bills 38, Dolphins 34

The Bills-Dolphins Week 4 tilt is going to be a shootout. These offenses are too good for it not to be. Both teams will mix the run and pass and hit their fair share of big plays in both facets of the game.

As good as Tua Tagovailoa has been this season, the advantage at quarterback still goes to Josh Allen and the Bills. And when the chips are down and one of these QBs has to make a final drive to win the game, I — along with all of Bills Mafia — will take Allen all day long.

These two teams will face each other again on the final week of the season, and maybe even again at some point in the playoffs. The Dolphins can easily take one of those matchups down the line, but for right now, the final bold Bills Week 4 prediction is that Buffalo wins the opening battle of this year-long AFC East war.