The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will match up in one of the most exciting games of the weekend. The game could be a playoff preview, as the teams are on a collision course to another AFC Championship. Patrick Mahomes is a notable name on the injury report, but the Chiefs could get Isaiah Pacheco back on the roster. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Chiefs-Bills prediction and pick.
Chiefs-Bills Last Game – Matchup History
The Chiefs and Bills have been among the best rivalries over the past five years, highlighted by the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen matchup. The Bills have tons of success against the Chiefs in the regular season but have been unable to get over the hump in the postseason. The Bills won last year's regular season matchup and three consecutive regular-season meetings. However, the Chiefs eliminated the Bills in the 2022 and 2024 postseasons.
The Chiefs won 27-24 in last year's playoffs. Buffalo took a 24-20 lead in the third quarter, but Kansas City won 27-24 on an Isaiah Pacheco four-yard rushing touchdown with 14 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The Bills couldn't find the end zone or even a field goal to tie for the remainder of the game.
Overall Series: Bills 29-25-1
Here are the Chiefs-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Chiefs-Bills Odds
Kansas City Chiefs: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +115
Buffalo Bills: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -135
Over: 46 (-110)
Under: 46 (-110)
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Bills
Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25 PM PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Chiefs set their sights on an undefeated season after starting 9-0. However, they'll have to get past their roadblock of being unable to beat the Bills in the regular season. It was going smoothly for the Chiefs in their first six games, as they covered the spread in five of those meetings. The question is whether their recent three-game stretch of unconvincing wins is a sign of things to come. They nearly blew the game to an injury-riddled Tampa Bay Buccaneers and were a field goal block away from losing to the Broncos in last week's matchup.
Patrick Mahomes had poor outings at the end of October, throwing for just 416 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions over two games against the San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders. Mahomes bounced back in the last two games, throwing four touchdowns and 557 yards.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Bills have been rolling, and they look like the Chiefs' most significant test since their two consecutive losses at the beginning of October. Buffalo lost back-to-back games against the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, but they have won five straight games and covered the spread in four. The Indianapolis Colts presented an intriguing test for the Bills last week, as it would've been easy to look past them and focus on this crucial matchup with the Chiefs. The Bills took care of business, defeating the Colts 30-20 as 4.5-point favorites.
Final Chiefs-Bills Prediction & Pick
The Bills have been trending in the right direction over the past three games, while the Chiefs have been unconvincingly beating some bad teams. The Bills will be a massive step up in competition and will have the home-field advantage to add to it. Buffalo should continue their regular season dominance over Kansas City in this game and send a message to the AFC.
Final Chiefs-Bills Prediction & Pick: Bills -2.5 (-110)
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