College Basketball Odds: Duke vs. NC State prediction, pick

Duke faces NC State. Our college basketball odds series has our Duke NC State prediction, odds and pick for Wednesday.

The Duke Blue Devils take on the NC State Wolfpack. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Duke NC State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Duke vs NC State.

The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina State Wolfpack have similar records: Duke is 11-3, NC State 11-4. Yet, the two teams have significantly different resumes. Duke has beaten Xavier (the team which gave UConn its first loss of the season this past weekend), Iowa, and Ohio State. NC State's best win is probably over Dayton. Duke has clearly achieved more against a tougher schedule. The Blue Devils' losses include Purdue and Kansas. Their only less-than-great loss was to Wake Forest.

That having been said, Duke and NC State are similar in one very clear way: Neither team has a quality ACC win on its portfolio to this point in the season. Duke has beaten Florida State and Boston College, both at home. The loss to Wake Forest was a road game and the Blue Devils' biggest challenge in the early stages of their ACC schedule. They failed that test. North Carolina State's only ACC win — the Wolfpack are 1-3 in the league — is against Louisville, easily the worst team in the conference. State lost ACC games to Pittsburgh, Miami, and Clemson. Both teams, then, need a good ACC win. State desperately needs a high-end win. Duke needs this game to avoid dropping further behind in the ACC standings.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Duke-NC State College Basketball odds.

College Basketball Odds: Duke-NC State Odds

Duke Blue Devils: -4.5 (-115)

NC State Wolfpack: +4.5 (-105)

Over: 144.5 (-110)

Under: 144.5 (-110)

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Why Duke Could Cover the Spread

The North Carolina State Wolfpack are not a very good team. Their win over Louisville was not convincing; that was a home game, and it took a long time for the Pack to establish clear superiority over and against the worst team in the ACC. State and coach Kevin Keatts have struggled to gain traction this season. They barely beat Vanderbilt, a not-very-good SEC team, and have generally not been able to get on top of their opponents. The Wolfpack frequently play a sluggish opening 10 minutes of games. They find themselves in a situation where they need to dig out of an early hole and find rhythm late in the first half. It's very hard for NC State to play complete 40-minute games this season. Furman was one of the few examples. Duke, which had a few players unavailable to play in the road ACC loss to Wake Forest, is healthier for this game and should be able to do better.

Why NC State Could Cover the Spread

The Duke Blue Devils have a coach other than Mike Krzyzewski, and it shows. This is not surprising, nor is it a criticism of new head coach Jon Scheyer. The transition from a college basketball icon to a young, new coach was inevitably going to create some growing pains, and Duke is in the middle of them. Duke doesn't yet have a high-quality ACC win away from home. ACC road teams are really struggling so far this season. North Carolina and Virginia both lost on the road in Pittsburgh against the Panthers over the past week. Virginia Tech and Notre Dame have both lost at Boston College, one of the worst teams other than Louisville in the conference. Road conference games are tough; look at the Mountain West, where New Mexico struggled against two sub-.500 teams, Wyoming and Fresno State, and lost its first game of the season to the Bulldogs on Tuesday night. State can use the home floor to its advantage.