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The Purdue Boilermakers (19-1) visit Michigan Wolverines (11-8) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Purdue-Michigan prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Purdue has won six consecutive games and sits at 8-1 and in first place in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers covered 42% of their games while 70% went under the projected point total. Michigan has won two of their last three games, sits at 5-3, and is tied for third place in the Big Ten. The Wolverines covered 47% of their games while 53% went over. While they split the series 1-1 last season, Michigan has covered 11 consecutive games against Purdue dating back to 2017.
Here are the Purdue-Michigan college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Purdue-Michigan Odds
Purdue: -5.5 (-105)
Michigan: +5.5 (-115)
Over: 135.5 (-110)
Under: 135.5 (-110)
How To Watch Purdue vs. Michigan
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: Fox Sports Live
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread
With just a single blemish on its resume, Purdue has regained its spot atop the country – and for good reason. The Boilermakers' only loss came in an upset to a solid Rutgers team and they have a number of wins against top-tier teams. The advanced metrics may not have Purdue as high as the AP voters, but they still rank No. 5 in KenPom and No. 4 in NET. Their favorable rating is largely thanks to a Division 1-leading seven Quad 1 wins. As it currently stands, the Boilermakers project as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue is a well-rounded team whose identity revolves around hard-nosed defense and rebounding. Despite having just the sixth-highest scoring offense in the Big Ten (73.6 PPG), the Boilermakers hold the seventh-highest scoring margin in the country (+13.8). That just speaks to their elite defense. Purdue trots out the eighth-best defense in Division 1 as they allow just 59.8 PPG. The Boilermakers do a great job defending without fouling and limiting their opponents' trips to the free-throw line. Perhaps their most impressive attribute is their ability to rebound as they lead the conference and rank ninth nationally with 39.9 RPG.
Their dominance on defense and on the glass starts with National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey. The 7'4″ junior is an absolute unit down low and leads the conference in scoring (21.5 PPG) and rebounding (13.2 RPG). He is the linchpin of their elite defense as well, averaging the second-most blocks in the Big Ten (2.3 BPG). Edey is impossible to guard and is coming off a monster 24-point, 16-rebound performance against Maryland.
Why Michigan Could Cover The Spread
Michigan has had an up-and-down season thus far but still sits in a good position to make some noise in the Big Ten. The Wolverines most recently squeaked out a tight home victory over last-place Minnesota – a game in which star freshman Jett Howard exited with an ankle injury. The advanced metrics see the Wolverines as a fringe tournament team as they rank No. 60 in KenPom and No. 76 in NET. Their unfavorable rating can be attributed to an 0-6 record in Quad 1 matchups and an ugly Quad 4 loss. As a result, the Wolverines do not currently project to make the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan features a solid offense that ranks fifth in the Big Ten in scoring (74.3 PPG). They do an excellent job taking care of the ball as they average the ninth-fewest turnovers in the country (10.1 TOPG). Perhaps most critical to their chances of covering tonight is their prowess on the defensive glass. Michigan ranks 13th in the country in defensive rebounding (26.4 RPG) – something that should come in handy against Purdue's 16th-ranked offensive rebounding team.
Michigan doesn't do anything ground-breaking on offense. That being said, they have a pair of All-Conference caliber players who give them a chance to cover on any given night. With sharpshooter Jett Howard's status up in the air, look for Hunter Dickinson to carry an even heavier offensive workload.
The 7'1″ center is one of the few guys in the country who can compete with Edey's size. If Dickinson can win some battles down low the Wolverines could find themselves with a serious chance to pull off an upset. For the season, Dickinson ranks fourth in the Big Ten in scoring (18.1 PPG), rebounding (8.9 RPG), and blocks (1.7 BPG). Additionally, he torched the Boilermakers for 50 points over two games last year.
Final Purdue-Michigan Prediction & Pick
Pay close attention to the pregame injury report. If Jett Howard is active I like Michigan's chances to not only cover, but potentially pull off the upset.
Final Purdue-Michigan Prediction & Pick: Michigan +5.5 (-115)
