We're still a few months away from the return of college football, but the anticipation is slowly building across the country with spring practices in the books. There's plenty of optimism surrounding the Arkansas football team with Heisman candidates KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders leading the Razorbacks back into relevance. Below, we continue our college football odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Arkansas Razorbacks.
One of the best quarterbacks in college football, KJ Jefferson was one of the main reasons Arkansas was competitive last season and he played a big role in the upset wins over Cincinnati and Ole Miss.
With Jefferson on the field, Arkansas averaged 6.3 yards per play (8.3 per pass and 5.3 per rush) with a 113.1 passer rating, per ESPN's David Hale. When Jefferson was sidelined due to injury, the Razorbacks averaged 5.2 yards per play (7.2 per pass and 4.0 per rush) with a 69.0 passer rating.
The Razorbacks lost four games by three points or fewer last year, but they still managed to cap it off with an incredible triple-overtime win over Kansas in the Liberty Bowl. It was a step back from a 9-4 mark in 2021, but Arkansas can still hang its hat on winning back-to-back bowl games for the second time in school history.
Over the last two years, KJ Jefferson has completed 402 of 594 passes (67.6 percent) for 5,324 yards with 45 touchdowns and nine interceptions. An impressive dual-threat and physical specimen at 6-3, 242 pounds, Jefferson also rushed for 1,304 yards and 15 touchdowns over the same span. He hasn't had a lot to work with on offense, either.
His top weapons last year were sophomore running back Raheim Sanders—nicknamed Rocket—and senior receiver Matt Landers, who has a real chance to make the Seattle Seahawks' roster, but he's still an undrafted free agent. Jadon Haselwood, the starting receiver opposite Landers, also landed with the Philadelphia Eagles as a priority rookie UDFA.
Here are the latest college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Football Odds: Arkansas Over/Under Win Total
Over 6.5 Wins: -114
Under 6.5 Wins: -106
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Why Arkansas Could Hit The Under
The Razorbacks were left off of our list of way-too-early college football playoff rankings heading into the summer and they'll face some daunting tests this season, including Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida—all on the road in extremely hostile environments.
Averaging a whopping 32.5 points per game last season, Arkansas' offense shouldn't be an issue, pending a good bill of health. Operating with a new offensive coordinator and a completely new cast of receivers could lead to some early-season growing pains in tough early-season tests against LSU and Texas A&M, however.
But aside from the schedule, the bigger factor in Arkansas' over/under odds will be the defense, which allowed a staggering 30.6 points per game last year and lost star linebacker Drew Sanders (No. 67 overall pick) to the NFL draft.
While Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida each have dealt with recent turnover, all four programs could pose some real obstacles as potential sleeper teams in the SEC. That's obviously in addition to daunting matchups on the road against LSU in September and Alabama and Ole Miss in October.
Why Arkansas Could Hit The Over
Despite facing a tough schedule, much of the success of the Razorbacks hinges on their aforementioned dynamic duo on offense in quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Rocket Sanders, who fueled Arkansas' stellar ground attack with 1,443 yards and 10 touchdowns at an eye-popping 6.5 yards per carry as a sophomore last year.
But they're not the only reasons we feel more comfortable taking the over on Arkansas' over-under prediction. Bryce Stephens is by far the most experienced receiver on the Hogs' roster, but he's going to face a tough battle for the top slot role from Isaiah Sategna, a four-star recruit who shined in the spring and seems primed for a breakout season.
Despite the departure of third-round center Ricky Stromberg (No. 97 overall to Washington), the Razorbacks' reshuffled offensive line is really starting to come together, with sophomores Devon Manuel and Patrick Kutas returning as the starting tackles, while seniors Brady Latham, Beaux Limmer, and Florida transfer Joshua Braun round out the promising unit.
Overall, the roster is fairly stacked after coming away as a winner from the transfer portal and putting together the 22nd-best recruiting class in the nation. In addition, a healthy bulk of their starters are returning on both sides of the ball.
While Jefferson may not be firing on all cylinders at the start of the season as he adjusts to a new coordinator and new receivers, he's clearly one of the best players in all of college football and has the tools to overcome any potential growing pains.
Final Arkansas Over/Under Prediction & Pick
Arkansas currently faces long odds to win the SEC, but the Razorbacks are well-equipped to handle their schedule and produce a third consecutive winning season. As the year progresses, health, depth, and leadership will be key factors for Arkansas' over/under odds.
Final Arkansas Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 6.5 Wins: -114
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