After enduring a mediocre 6-7 losing season that saw the Florida Gators on the wrong side of a 30-3 blowout loss to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, head coach Billy Napier and company will look to bounce back in a big way in 2023. It is time to check out our college football odds series where our Florida over/under win total prediction and pick will be revealed for all to see.

Historically speaking, Florida Gators football has been one of the more successful programs in all of college football over the last several decades. Since 1991, Florida has captured eight conference titles including three national championships in 1996, 2006, and 2008. With back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since the 1978-79 seasons. Without a doubt, the Gators faithful are beginning to get restless, and for good reason.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 5.5 wins: -134

Under 5.5 wins: +110

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Why Florida Can Win 5.5 Games 

First things first, even with a pair unusual seasons in Gainesville, there are multiple reasons that the Gators should feel optimistic heading into this fall. For starters, Florida has yet to skip a beat in the recruiting realm of college football. Believe it or not, despite that their record has suggested in 2021 and 2022, the Gators own the 14th-ranked recruiting class in the nation this last year and also boasted the 18th-best class in Billy Napier's initial recruiting cycle. Alas, this could be the season where Napier's troops all come together as there should be a slew of talent on the gridiron for the Gators this fall.

In addition, Florida was absolutely horrendous defensively a season ago as they finished the campaign with the 97th-ranked pass defense in the nation. Clearly, a change on the coaching staff needed to be made as Florida named Scott Armstrong as their new defensive coordinator. Spending the last two seasons as Southern Miss' DC, Armstrong helped the Golden Eagles to the third-most tackles for loss nationally (8.3 per game), fourth in sacks nationally, (3.39 per game), and seventh nationally with 17 total interceptions. Without a doubt, Armstrong will be working with far more talent than he had at Southern Miss which should serve him greatly in helping Florida return to prominence on the defensive side of the ball.

Lastly, the Napier and the Gators should have a little more familiarity in year two under his scheme. When Napier was the head coach at Louisiana, his second year is when they found the most improvement as they went from going 7-7 to 11-3 in a miraculous one-year turnaround. If all else fails, Florida has to bank on Napier finding his niche at the helm by running the ship more like how he wants it.

Why Florida Can Not Win 5.5 Games

As it stands, the Florida under/over win total at 5.5 games seems fair considering that the Gators have only won six games in each of their past two seasons. At first glance, Florida will need to replace a quarterback in Anthony Richardson who went top-five in the NFL Draft. Obviously, replacing a signal caller of that caliber is always a difficult task, especially when the quarterback position is the most important player on a football field. Although the Gators will help out Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz up front on the offensive line and with two stellar running backs in the backfield, there will be certainly less things thing offense can do as Mertz doesn't possess as much athleticism as Richardson at quarterback. There is a reason that Mertz is transferring, as his up and down to play is slightly concerning.

Not to mention, Florida's schedule won't get any easier in 2023. To begin, the Gators will travel to a hostile Salt Lake City to take on a Utah Utes squad that is returning a healthy bulk of their roster who recently made an appearance in the Rose Bowl Game. Two weeks later, the Gators will take on rival Tennessee in what will also be a tough matchup. With many challenging games on Florida's early season schedule, there is a fear that they might be facing an uphill battle of winning at least 5.5 games if they fall behind the eight-ball early.

The final reason that the Gators will fail to win six games and become bowl eligible will be in large part due to the unproven names on defense. Like previously mentioned, this defense will have plenty of talent, but they lack the experience needed to compete with the juggernauts of the SEC Conference. My fear is that if Florida gets hit with the injury bug defensively, they don't necessarily have the depth to survive such setbacks. With that being said, injuries and inexperience could be the Gators' downfall in 2023.

Final Florida Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

While fans are running out off patience for this team to return to contender status, they might have to wait a little bit longer as it will be Florida that ultimately falls short of the 5.5 wins mark.

Final Florida Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 5.5 (+110)