The Iowa State Cyclones take on the TCU Horned Frogs. Check out our college football odds series for our Iowa State TCU prediction and pick.

The TCU Horned Frogs are so close to completing a perfect regular season. No one expected this group to be a national championship contender with a great chance to make the College Football Playoff. The extra big surprise attached to the 2022 season for TCU is that it was a national title challenger in previous seasons under program patriarch Gary Patterson, who was excellent for most of his multi-decade career in Fort Worth. TCU made a serious run at the national championship in 2009 and 2010, then again in 2014. TCU easily could have made the national championship game and/or the playoff if one or two breaks had gone its way. When Patterson stepped down last season, it seemed that TCU would at least have to go through a transition period. At worst, the departure of Patterson offered the possibility that TCU would settle into mediocrity.

Instead, Sonny Dykes — who struggled as the head coach at Cal with the Golden Bears — immediately stepped in and revamped the program Patterson left behind. It is a truly stunning and meteoric rise for a coach who did some good work at SMU, but who was not viewed as a superstar in the coaching profession by any stretch of the imagination. Sonny Dykes becoming a star-level coach is something a lot of analysts did not expect. Yet, Dykes is doing an amazing job. He improved the offensive line, which was a weakness the past few years under Patterson. He has given quarterback Max Duggan more resources and better pass protection. He hired offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, the younger brother of USC head coach Lincoln Riley. That move has turned out to be brilliant. TCU has a chance to go 12-0 if it wins this game. The Horned Frogs could enter next week's Big 12 Championship Game with a “win and in” scenario for the College Football Playoff. Absolutely no one envisioned this scenario in late August, just before the regular season began.

Iowa State has been competitive in the Big 12 this season. The problem isn't how well this team competes; it is how well it finishes games. Iowa State has crafted a Nebraska-like reputation for playing in a lot of close games and consistenly losing them. Iowa State needs to find sources of instant offense which can increase this team's margin for error and remove the need to be patient and deliberate on nearly every offensive possession. Elite teams have to have some measure of quick-strike capability. This is where Iowa State falls conspicuously short under head coach Matt Campbell.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Iowa State-TCU College Football odds.

College Football Odds: Iowa State-TCU Odds

Iowa State Cyclones: +9.5 (-104)

TCU Horned Frogs: -9.5 (-118)

Over: 47.5 (-110)

Under: 47.5 (-110)

Why Iowa State Could Cover the Spread

The Cyclones play a lot of close games. If they play a close game here, they will cover the spread as an underdog of nearly 10 points. Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock is quietly one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. He can win a chess match with Sonny Dykes and Garrett Riley. TCU's offense did not play especially well last week against Baylor. Iowa State can certainly give the TCU offense some problems.

Why TCU Could Cover the Spread

TCU is doing what it needs to do. Against a limited Iowa State offense which has had a hard time scoring all season long, TCU will find a matchup in which it should be comfortable. The Horned Frogs won't need to score 40 to win comfortably. If they score 30, Iowa State will have a very hard time scoring 20. A 30-17 score would enable TCU to cover.

Final Iowa State-TCU Prediction & Pick

TCU is thriving and has just aced two tough road tests against Texas and Baylor. The Horned Frogs have earned the benefit of the doubt and should handle Iowa State's very limited offense.

Final Iowa State-TCU Prediction & Pick: TCU -9.5