The Michigan Wolverines are set to face the Penn State Nittany Lions this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Michigan-Penn State prediction, odds, and pick.

The Michigan Wolverines are living through yet another Groundhog Day season under coach Jim Harbaugh. They are also living through a series of events which recalls the Greek mythical figure Sisyphus, the man who rolled the boulder up the hill and then — just when the boulder was about to get over the ledge — would watch the boulder roll back down the slope. Over and over, Sisyphus would have to roll the boulder up the hill, condemned to constant torment and misery.

People who study college football odds and are contemplating a Michigan-Penn State pick are well aware of this reality for Harbaugh. Every time it seems Michigan is about to win a huge game or cross a threshold of some sort, everything crashes down. It happened again for the Wolverines against Michigan State nearly two weeks ago, when a 30-14 second-half lead turned into a nightmarish 37-33 loss which once again dealt this program a gut punch.

Michigan might not be ready to beat Ohio State, but beating Michigan State would have guaranteed a high-level bowl berth for the Wolverines and kept them in the College Football Playoff chase. Now, they must beat Penn State or Ohio State — one of the two teams — to still get a New Year's Six bowl berth. If they lose to the Nittany Lions, they would have to beat the Buckeyes, which they have never done under Harbaugh. Are the stakes high for Michigan? You do the math.

Penn State started its season brightly, led by a brilliant defense which stood tall in wins over Wisconsin and Auburn. Then came the fateful evening in Iowa City when quarterback Sean Clifford got injured, costing the Nittany Lions a win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. Penn State then lost the infamous nine-overtime game to Illinois on a day when its offensive line cratered. The Nittany Lions then played a quality game at Ohio State but came up short. They have to beat Michigan and then Michigan State to make a New Year's Six bowl. The stakes are high for coach James Franklin, who is a candidate for open jobs at LSU and USC.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Michigan-Penn State odds:

College Football odds: Michigan-Penn State Odds

Michigan: -1.5 (-112)

Penn State: +1.5 (-108)

Over: 48.5 (-114)

Under: 48.5 (-106)

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Why Michigan Could Cover the Spread

The Wolverines are going against a Penn State team which lost at home to Illinois, scoring only 18 points in a nine-overtime game. The Penn State offensive line is noticeably weak, which gives Michigan's inconsistent defense a chance to put the clamps down on the Nittany Lions and give Michigan's offense a larger margin for error. 

Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford is a decent player. He likes to run and can therefore make plays when the pocket breaks down. However, he is far from an elite passer. Even in the Iowa game in which his injury turned the tide, he threw two interceptions. PSU was in position to win that game because its defense was overwhelming the Iowa offense. Clifford's injury changed that equation, but he was never playing at an elite level before his injury. Michigan can shut him down and win a 17-10-style rockfight.

Why Penn State Could Cover the Spread

The best reason to pick a team here is to point out the opponent's weaknesses, because this is a matchup of teams which have profound flaws on offense that keep holding them back. Penn State is limited by its offensive line. Michigan is limited by quarterback Cade McNamara, who can't throw a good deep ball. Penn State's corners should be able to hold up in one-on-one situations. The Nittany Lions can load the tackle box and stuff the run, daring McNamara to beat them down the field. It is doubtful that he will be able to do that. This is a factor in a Michigan-Penn State pick. 

Final Michigan-Penn State Prediction & Pick

The game itself is a coin flip. Taking the under is the play here. Penn State has played seven unders and just two overs this season. Cade McNamara is not going to roast the PSU secondary. PSU's defensive line will control Michigan's offensive line. This will be a 20-17 game, either way.

Final Michigan-Penn State Pick: Under 48.5