The NC State Wolfpack take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. Check out our college football odds series for our NC State North Carolina prediction and pick.

The North Carolina Tar Heels were up 17-0 at home against a Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket team which is unlikely to make a bowl game. North Carolina had not lost a game in ACC play this season. A very successful year was about to notch another victory and move the Tar Heels to 10-1 for the season. The great thing about this season for UNC had been that the Tar Heels didn’t play down to their competition to the extent they normally do. The Tar Heels had attained a number of businesslike wins and had shown a level of maturity which was missing in 2021, when they failed to win the ACC Coastal Division championship and were one of the biggest disappointments of the season. This year’s team has generally been the opposite. It rose to the occasion instead of shriveling. It grew in composure and poise late in close games. This new Carolina identity put the Heels on track to meet Clemson in a battle of one-loss teams in the ACC Championship Game in December.

Then everything took a shocking turn.

The Tar Heels got shut out in the second half. Quarterback Drake Maye was noticeably inconsistent. Star receiver Josh Downs dropped a fourth-down pass at the Georgia Tech 1-yard line in the final five minutes. For some weird reason, he began to turn upfield as though trying to run for more yardage when the ball arrived. Because of that upfield turn, he took his eyes off the ball and dropped it. North Carolina lost, 21-17, which takes some of the buzz out of the ACC title game against Clemson. The Tar Heels looked a lot more like the 2021 team last week, which is a departure from how most of this season has unfolded.

North Carolina State endured a tough loss at Louisville. The Wolfpack are playing without star quarterback Devin Leary, who suffered a season-ending injury several weeks ago. The NC State offense has not been able to compensate for Leary’s absence, which is understandable. The Wolfpack won’t go to a big bowl game, but they can at least win their big in-state rivalry. We will see what coach Dave Doeren has ready for the Tar Heels.

Here are the NC State-North Carolina NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: NC State-North Carolina Odds

NC State Wolfpack: +6.5 (-118)

North Carolina Tar Heels: -6.5 (-104)

Over: 55.5 (-115)

Under: 55.5 (-105)

Why NC State Could Cover the Spread

The Tar Heels reverted to their 2021 form late in the season, a sign that they are feeling the pressure of being touted and hyped. North Carolina played sloppy, nervous football against Georgia Tech. Drake Maye’s Heisman Trophy chances were ruined. This team is limping toward the finish line. North Carolina State can win the game with its defense.

Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread

Drake Maye and Josh Downs both failed to perform last week against Georgia Tech. They are both very talented players who are going to bounce back and take it upon themselves to fix what went wrong in Week 12. They will respond perfectly in Week 13.

Final NC State-North Carolina Prediction & Pick

Drake Maye might have lost his fastball, but that point aside, these games are usually close. North Carolina might win, but NC State will cover.

Final NC State-North Carolina Prediction & Pick: NC State +6.5