The Oklahoma Sooners are set to face the Baylor Bears this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Oklahoma-Baylor prediction, odds, and pick.

The Oklahoma Sooners are unbeaten, but if we are being candid, they haven't played like an elite team for most of the season. Much like the Cincinnati Bearcats, another team which is in the College Football Playoff hunt, Oklahoma has not put together very many complete games. The Sooners thrashed TCU and hammered Texas Tech, but they have often struggled in one way or another — on defense against Tulane, Texas, and Kansas State, on offense versus West Virginia, Kansas, and Nebraska. Keep that in mind when considering an Oklahoma-Baylor pick.

Oklahoma has been resourceful this season, pulling off the massive comeback win against Texas and not flinching in close games when a lot of events cut against the Sooners. Injuries have limited the ceiling of this team on both sides of the ball, and of course, Lincoln Riley had to make the move from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams at quarterback. Many teams have a below-average No. 2 quarterback, or at least a No. 2 QB who — though talented — might not be entirely ready for the big stage. Riley had Williams ready when Rattler faltered. Somehow, OU is unbeaten and in the playoff mix. Good programs find ways through the landmines; the Sooners are one of the best programs in the country for a reason.

Baylor lost to TCU last weekend, getting ambushed by Horned Frog quarterback Chandler Morris, who — interestingly enough — transferred out of Lincoln Riley's OU program to get more playing time in Fort Worth. Morris smoked coach Dave Aranda's Bears for 461 passing yards. Part of this was Baylor lacking extensive game film on Morris; part of this was Morris playing a brilliant game; but another part of this was simply Baylor defenders not wrapping up and making tackles they should have made. It was easily the worst defensive game of the year for BU, which might have been caught looking ahead to this Oklahoma contest. Aranda is being rumored as a candidate for big open coaching jobs. If he wins this game against OU, his stock will certainly rise.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Oklahoma-Baylor odds:

College Football odds: Oklahoma-Baylor Odds

Oklahoma: -5.5 (-110)

Baylor: +5.5 (-110)

Over: 62.5 (-110)

Under: 62.5 (-110)

*Watch College Football Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)

Why Oklahoma Could Cover the Spread

People in sports talk about the “it factor.” Caleb Williams of Oklahoma has “it.” He has that extra knack for knowing what to do in a difficult, high-stress situation. His improvised “ball-raking” play against Kansas, in which he simply took the ball from his running back when Kansas had stopped the runner short on a fourth-down carry, gave OU a first down and effectively sealed the win over the Sooners. How many other players would have thought of doing that? Very few.

Caleb Williams is a special player who craves the big stage. It doesn't guarantee he will push all the right buttons against Baylor, but he's a hard guy to bet against. If Oklahoma loses, it probably won't be due to Williams.

Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

The Bears were caught looking ahead to Oklahoma when they faced TCU. Baylor was a step slow all day, playing like a team which wasn't entirely focused on the task at hand. The Bears will be bursting at the seams, and Aranda — who contained Oklahoma's offense last year with even less talent than he has on this year's roster — is likely to come up with a great game plan. 

Also: The game is in Waco, and Oklahoma has not been consistent enough to produce a perfect season. The Sooners are overdue for a loss; they have cheated the college football odds to this point.

Final Oklahoma-Baylor Prediction & Pick

Would it really be that much of an upset if Baylor wins at home? Dave Aranda is a very good coach. Baylor will treat this game as its Super Bowl. Oklahoma has the talent to kick Baylor to the curb, but the Sooners have been noticeably erratic this season and are not the airtight team Georgia is. Georgia is the rock-solid team which is likely to turn back an upstart's upset bid. OU doesn't have that same identity. Dave Aranda will get it done.

Final Oklahoma-Baylor Pick: Baylor +5.5