Croatia avoided falling into a 0-2 hole when they rallied to draw Albania. They now hold the chance of advancing to the knockout stage, as a win over Italy would give them second in the group. Italy won the last Euro tournament but hasn't qualified for the past two World Cups. It would be another disaster for them if they lost to Croatia and failed to advance to the knockout stage. These teams haven't faced off since 2015 but have drawn three straight 1-1 games. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with a Croatia-Italy prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Croatia won three consecutive friendlies entering this tournament, including a 2-1 win over Portugal in the last. However, they dropped their tournament opener to Spain 3-0, then tied Albania 2-2. The tournament has been a disaster for them so far, but they can still advance to the round of 16 with a win.

Italy won a close 2-1 game over Albania in the tournament opener but lost a hard-fought match to Spain 1-0 after Riccardo Calafiori's own goal. Italy hasn't been in great form, as they struggled to qualify for this tournament. They needed a draw against Ukraine in the last qualifying match to qualify. Luciano Spalletti made some adjustments for the Spain match, notably inserting Gianluca Scamacca into the starting lineup over Giacomo Raspadori. However, the move didn't lead to any more goal-scoring. Italy will advance with a win or draw thanks to Croatia's draw against Albania.

Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Euros Odds: Croatia-Italy Odds

Croatia: +210

Italy: +135

Draw: +220

Over 2.5 goals: -104

Under 2.5 goals: -118

How to Watch Croatia vs. Italy

Time: 3 PM ET/noon PT


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Why Croatia Will Win

There's no way to have faith in Italy to get the job done in this match. They've failed to qualify for the last two World Cups and almost didn't make it into this tournament. It isn't hard to see a scenario where we wake up on Tuesday wondering how Italy failed once again on the world stage.

Why Italy Will Win

Croatia's core isn't getting any younger, and they may not have much left for Italy after a difficult draw into the group of death. Croatia gave everything to secure a draw against Albania, so there's no guarantee they will have much to offer against Italy.

Italy struggles against teams who run, ranking near the bottom in all the statistics for counterattacking and long balls. They won't have to face that against Croatia and should be able to lull them into a low-scoring victory.

Final Croatia-Italy Prediction & Pick

The feeling is that Italy will advance to the knockout stage in this match, as an early exit would be a disaster after their World Cup failures. However, the scary thing is they'd be okay with a draw. Italy's only goal in this matchup is to advance, so they may park the bus and hold on for a draw if that opportunity arises. The Italians aren't going to press in this game and risk going behind, while most of Croatia's success comes from their counter-attacking abilities.

The Croatians don't participate in high-scoring matches, as they only created 5.2 expected goals in four games against tougher competition in qualifying. Their expected goals numbers were skewed by weaker opponents, but Italy falls into the tougher competition category, regardless of how you feel about their form. This soccer game may not have many exciting moments, as the Italians try to slog through 90 minutes and live to fight another day in the round of 16.

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Final Croatia-Italy Prediction & Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-118)