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The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers for Game 4 of the National League Division Series. It's time to continue our NLDS odds series with a Dodgers-Padres prediction and pick.
This prediction was written by Bryan Logan.
Dodgers-Padres Game 4 Projected Starters
Landon Knack or Opener vs. Dylan Cease
Landon Knack (3-5) with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP
Last Start: Knack went four innings giving up five hits and a home run. He would allow just one run in a no-decision as the Dodgers beat the Rockies.
2024 Road Splits: Knack was 2-1 in five starts and eight total appearances on the road. He had a 3.60 ERA and a .250 opponent batting average.
Dylan Cease (14-11) with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP
Last Start: Cease started game one of the series with the Dodgers. He went 3.1 innings giving up six hits, two walks, and a home run. He would give up five runs as he took the no-decision and the Padres lost game one to the Dodgers.
2024 Home Splits: Dylan Cease was 8-4 on the road with a 3.83 ERA and a .198 opponent batting average.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Dodgers-Padres Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: +118
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -138
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How to Watch Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4
Time: 9:08 ET/6:08 PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Dodgers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Dodgers finished the regular season second in runs scored, fourth in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and first in slugging. They were led by Shohei Ohtani. Ohtani hit .310 with a .390 on-base percentage. He had 54 home runs, 130 RBIS, and scored 134 runs. Further, he stole 59 bases this year. Teoscar Hernandez also had a solid season. He hit .272 with a .339 on-base percentage. Hernandez had 33 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 84 runs scored. Freddie Freeman rounded out the top bats on the year. He hit .282 with a .378 on-base percentage. Freeman has 22 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 81 runs scored. Still, Freeman is battling an injury that could limit him in game four.
Teoscar Hernandez has also led the way in the playoffs this year. He is hitting .300 with a .417 on-base percentage in the series. He has a home run, six RBIs, and two runs scored. Shohei Ohtani has also been solid. He is hitting just .231 in the series but has a home run, three RBIs, and three runs scored. The Dodgers have hit just .217 in the series so far, with four home runs and 14 runs scored in three games.
Current Dodgers have 100 career at-bats against Dylan Cease, hitting .270 against him. Shohei Ohtani has had the most success. He is 5-17 with a double and three home runs. Further, he has seven RBIs against Cease. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman is 5-11 with two RBIs, while Enrique Hernandez is 5-12 with a home run and two RBIs.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres finished the regular season eighth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting first in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and seventh in slugging. Manny Machado led the way this year. He hit .275 with a .325 on-base percentage. Further, he had 29 home runs, 105 RBIs, and scored 77 runs. Scoring runs is something Jurickson Profar did a lot of this year. He hit .280 with a .380 on-base percentage. Profar has 24 home runs, 85 RBIS, and 94 runs scored. Finally, Jackson Merrill was solid. He hit .292 with 24 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 77 runs scored.
In the playoffs, Fernando Tatis has been amazing. He is hitting .556 with a .636 on-base percentage. He has four home runs, seven RBIS, and eight runs scored. Kyle Higashioka has also been great. He is hitting .308 with three home runs, five RBIs, and three runs scored. Finally, Jackson Merrill is producing. He is hitting .353 in the playoffs with a home run, five RBIs, and three runs scored. The Padres are hitting .255 in the postseason with 11 home runs and 30 runs scored in five games.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Dodgers have not officially named a starter for game four of the NLDS, but it is expected to be Landon Knack or an opener for the game. Knack struggled down the stretch run of the season, having a 5.14 ERA in his last five starts. Meanwhile, the Padres send Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease has faced the Dodgers in each of his last two starts. He has pitched 8.1 innings, giving up eight runs in those two starts as the Padres lost both of them. The Dodgers have hit well against Cease and continued that in game one of the series. The Dodgers were the favorite in terms of odds to advance over the Padres in the NLDS, and they will stave off elimination for one more game in this one.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Dodgers ML (+118)
