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The Houston Rockets will try to stave off a 3-1 deficit as they play the Golden State Warriors in Game 4 of the Best-of-7 First-Round Series on Monday at Chase Center. It will be a showdown in San Francisco as we continue our NBA playoffs odds series with a Rockets-Warriors Game 4 prediction and pick.
The Warriors beat the Rockets 104-93 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in their Best-of-7 First-Round Series. Initially, the Rockets led 22-18 after the first quarter and 49-46 at halftime. It was even 71-69 Houston after three quarters. However, the Warriors exploded in the fourth quarter and never looked back.
Here are the Rockets-Warriors Game 4 NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Rockets-Warriors Game 4 Odds
Houston Rockets: +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +140
Golden State Warriors: -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -166
Over: 202.5 (-112)
Under: 202.5 (-108)
How To Watch Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 10 PM ET/7 PM PT
TV: TNT, SCHN, NBC Sports Bay Area, and truTV
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Rockets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Rockets tried to slow this game down. Unfortunately, things got out of hand as the Warriors erupted in the fourth quarter and eventually pulled away.
Fred VanVleet led the scorers with 17 points while shooting 5 for 14 from the field. Meanwhile, Alperen Sengun had 15 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 7 for 18 from the floor. Dillon Brooks was not much better, adding 11 points while shooting 5 for 16 from the hardwood. Likewise, Jalen Green struggled all night, scoring only nine points while shooting 4 for 11 from the field.
The bench had 28 points, which was a net positive. Overall, the team shot a miserable 39.5 percent from the floor, including 39.3 percent from beyond the arc. The Rockets were also pitiful at the free-throw line, making just 58.3 percent (14 for 24) from the charity stripe. Furthermore, the Rockets won the board battle 51-45, but it was not enough. The offense also committed 14 turnovers.
The defense had just five steals and six blocked shots. While they started strong, the defense eventually faltered in the fourth quarter, allowing the Warriors to take control.
The Rockets will cover the spread if they can improve their shooting and execute a more effective offensive attack. Then, they need to clamp down on defense and finish their plays.
Why the Warriors Will Cover the Spread/Win
Jimmy Butler did not play in this game and may not be available for Game 4 after suffering an injury in Game 2. Regardless, the Warriors found a way to win with a very reliable shooter.
Stephen Curry had another dominant playoff performance, scoring 36 points while shooting 12 for 23 from the floor, including 5 for 13 from the triples. Meanwhile, Buddy Hield had 17 points off the bench while shooting 6 for 13 from the floor. Gary Payton Jr. added 16 points while shooting 7 for 9 from the field off the bench.
The Warriors only shot 43.3 percent from the hardwood, a figure that was low because of their slow start. Additionally, they only hit 31.3 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. The Warriors lost the board battle, but it did not hurt them. However, the Warriors also turned the ball over 10 times.
Draymond Green had a technical foul but still did enough on defense to lead the team. Notably, the defense was very effective, notching nine steals and blocking six shots. Holding the Rockets to under 40 percent shooting paid dividends in the end, and that rock-solid defense must continue to evolve as the series progresses.
The Warriors will cover the spread if they can avoid the sluggish start and Curry can continue his masterful shooting. Then, they need to continue to frustrate the Houston shooters and play great defense.
Final Rockets-Warriors Game 4 Prediction & Pick
The Rockets can look to the Denver Nuggets as a team that recently went into Game 4 on the road trailing 2-1 and won that contest. Interestingly, the last time the Rockets found themselves in this situation occurred in the 2015 NBA Playoffs against another California team, the Los Angeles Clippers. In that scenario, the Rockets lost Game 4 on the road but ultimately won the series by winning their next three games. Ironically, the Warriors were in a similar situation in the 2018 NBA Playoffs, with Game 4 at home and a 2-1 lead against the Rockets, but lost that contest.
I can see a similar scenario here. Ultimately, if you look at the entirety of Game 4, the Rockets played well for 75 percent of the game but simply fell apart. I think they will hit more shots and make this a better game. While I cannot guarantee a win, I still think the Rockets will make this a fun contest to the very end.
Final Rockets-Warriors Game 4 Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets: +3.5 (-110)
