Playoff lives are on the line as the Atlanta Falcons face the New Orleans Saints. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Falcons-Saints prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Falcons enter the game at 7-9 on the year, but recent play has cost them ground in the playoff race. They have lost three of their last four, including a 29-25 loss to their division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and a two-point loss to the Carolina Panthers. Last time out, they faced the Chicago Bears. It was an ugly game for the Falcons as they gave up the first two touchdowns of the game while missing field goals on their first two drives. They would answer back on a 75-yard touchdown to Tyler Allgeier from Taylor Heinicke to make it a one-score game in the second quarter. That would be as close as it would get though, as the Bears scored again before the half and would go on to win 37-17. The Falcons can make the playoffs though. If they win, and the Buccaneers lose to the Panthers, they will be NFC South Champions.
Meanwhile, the Saints enter the game sitting at 8-8 on the year, while thye have won three of their last four games. Last time out, they faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints opened the game with the first touchdown of the game. Juwan Johnson scored to get the Saints the 7-0 lead. They would add another touchdown in the second quarter and a field goal to lead 17-0. The defense would play great, not allowing a score until the fourth quarter. They would hold on to win 23-13 and now have a chance at the playoffs. The Saints win the division with a win and a Buccaneers loss or tie, or a tie with a Buccaneers loss. Further, they can make the wild card with a win, plus Seattle and Green Bay losing or trying.
Here are the Falcons-Saints NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Falcons-Saints Odds
Atlanta Falcons: +3 (-105)
New Orleans Saints: -3 (-115)
Over: 42.5 (-110)
Under: 42.5 (-110)
How to Watch Falcons vs. Saints Week 18
Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial), NFL Sunday Ticket if out-of-market
Why The Falcons Could Cover The Spread
The Falcons sit 24th in the NFL this year in points per game, averaging just 19.0 points per game this year. They are 18th in yards per game while sitting eighth in rushing yards and 22nd in passing yards. Taylor Heinicke has started the last two games and has played in five, starting four. On the year he has passed for just 890 yards and five scores, but has also thrown four interceptions. In the game last week, he threw for just 163 yards and three interceptions. This led to Desmond Ridder playing some. He came in and went three for four for 17 yards and an interception. He has 2,545 yards on the year with ten scores and 11 interceptions.
While quarterback play has struggled, the run game has been solid. Bijan Robinson has been great for the team, coming in with 940 yards this year and four touchdowns. He has forced 51 missed tackles and also has 636 yards after contact this year. Further, Tyler Allgeier comes in with 659 yards this year and four scores of his own on the ground. Both guys have also helped out in the passing game. Robinson has 384 receiving yards and three scores, while Allgeier has 183 yards and a touchdown.
Drake London has led the receiving game for the Falcons. He enters the game with 864 yards on 65 receptions this year but has scored just twice. Kyle Pitts has scored three times this year, sitting second on the team with 640 yards and 51 receptions.
On defense, the Falcons are ninth in the NFL in points allowed this year, while sitting 11th in yards allowed per game. They sit 19th against the run but are second in passing yards per game this year. Jessie Bates III has been wonderful this year for the Falcons. He enters the game with three forced fumbles, four pass breakups, and six interceptions.
Why The Saints Could Cover The Spread
The Saints sit 14th in the NFL in points per game this year, while sitting 16th in yards per game this year. They are 21st in rushing yards per game this year, but sitting 12th in passing yards per game this year. Derek Carr leads the way in passing this year. He has completed 353 of 520 passes this year for 3,614 yards. He also has 21 touchdowns this year, with just eight interceptions. In his last four games, he has had multiple touchdowns in each of them, while throwing just two interceptions in the games.
In the rushing game, Alvin Kamara leads the way. He comes in with 694 yards this year with five touchdowns. He has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, while 2.51 yards per carry come after first contact. Kamara has also brought in 466 yards receiving this year and a score. Adding to the backfield is do-it-all-all player Taysom Hill. Hill has run for 350 yards this year while scoring four times. hill also has 83 passing yards and a touchdown, plus he has 263 yards receiving with two scores.
In the receiving game, Chris Olave leads the way. He comes in with 84 receptions this year for 1,067 yards and four scores. He has been fairly reliable with just six drops on 135 targets this year. Further, Rashid Shaheed has been solid. He comes in with 654 yards on the year and four scores. Shaheed has been solid in contested catches as well, bringing in 57.1 percent of his contested catches this year.
On defense, the Saints sit sixth in points against per game, while sitting 13th in opponent yards per game this year. They are ninth in passing yards against while sitting 21st in rushing yards against per game. Linebacker Demario Davis has been wonderful for the Saints this year. He has seven sacks on the year with 22 quarterback pressures. In the run game, he has 45 stops for offensive failures, while forcing a fumble.
Final Falcons-Saints Prediction & Pick
This game will come down to quarterback play, mainly the Falcons quarterback play. If Ridder or Heinicke make too many mistakes, they will fall out of this game early. The Saints have been solid on defense all year, and the offense is starting to follow suit. The prediction in this Falcons-Saints game is the Saints get up early, capitalize on some Falcons mistakes, and hold on to win, keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Final Falcons-Saints Prediction & Pick: Saints -3 (-115)