NFL trades don't happen every day. Apparently, Week 5 of the 2023 season did not get that memo. Earlier this week, the Los Angeles Chargers traded cornerback JC Jackson to the New England Patriots, swapping a seventh-round pick for a sixth-round pick in the process. The same trade was made between the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins, who gave up the same package to acquire disgruntled wide receiver Chase Claypool. Then, the San Francisco 49ers decided to get in on the fun and acquire pass rusher Randy Gregory for the same value as what Chicago and Los Angeles traded Jackson and Claypool for. The trade has gone down; now it is time to grade the trade for each team.
San Francisco 49ers: A
As part of this trade, the Denver Broncos are paying all but the prorated minimum of the remaining $10 million left on Gregory's contract. So not only did the 49ers not give up much value at all in terms of draft capital or actual money. For a player of Gregory's pedigree, that is an absolute home run. Gregory's sack total over his career isn't the most impressive; in 48 games, Gregory has accumulated only 19.5 sacks. But being a pass rusher is much more than just sacks. PFF has graded Gregory quite favorably over his career.
Randy Gregory is a notably high-ceiling acquisition for the 49ers, especially since he's making only the min. PFF pass-rushing productivity and ranks among edge rushers:
2018: 6.9 (#27)
2020: 8.5 (#8)
2021: 8.7 (#10)
2022: 10.2 (#4)**
2023: 5.4 (#42)**only played 6 games
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) October 6, 2023
The 49ers have loved to take shots on talented edge rushers and deploy them in waves. With how much the 49ers are paying Nick Bosa and their interior defensive line, it's a wise approach to take. In addition to Bosa and their star interior tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave, the 49ers add Gregory to a pass rush group that includes those three, Clelin Ferrell (the former fourth overall pick in 2019), Javon Kinlaw (the 14th overall pick in the 2020 draft), Drake Jackson (a second-round pick by the 49ers in 2022), and solid veteran Kerry Hyder Jr.
As one would imagine, the 49ers rank ninth in ESPN's pass rush win rate metric with their studded group on the defensive line. Now they're adding another proven quality edge rusher for pennies on the dollar. There's no other way around it. John Lynch and the 49ers crushed this trade.
Denver Broncos: C+
The Denver Broncos signed Randy Gregory to be one of the better pass rushers in the NFL when they inked him to a five-year $70 million contract in free agency with $28 million guaranteed. Gregory did play well as noted above, but the Broncos continued to take a step back as a franchise. After multiple coaching changes and Sean Payton seeing solid play from younger pass rushers like Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, it makes sense for a team that is currently 1-3 fresh off of a 5-12 season a year ago to go with the youth movement. With the Broncos not owing Gregory money after this season, it makes even more sense to clean up their salary cap sheets in the process.
Ideally, the Broncos would've loved to get more than just a swap of a sixth and seventh-round pick, but it is at least something. Considering that news dropped days before that the Broncos were going to release Gregory and get nothing in return, that's a minor win for the Broncos. The Broncos did the same thing with tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, but got a fifth-round pick in return. All of these minor victories can stack up and bring a team more value. It's good business by the Broncos. But the opportunity cost of signing Gregory to that deal, hardly playing in any big games during his time there, and selling him for this low of a return has to sting.
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