The Golden State Warriors are in trouble. This is a sentence you never thought you would hear as long as Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson were the featured names leading this organization. Since the 2014-15 season, the Warriors have been known to be the NBA's latest dynasty, winning four championships and reaching the NBA Finals in six of the last nine years. Their recent championship in 2022 made it appear as if these three future Hall of Famers had rekindled their championship ways and sparked a new age of the golden dynasty.
After an underwhelming 44-38 record last season, the Warriors have seemed to reach new lows this year. With 15 games remaining on their schedule, the Warriors are 35-32 overall and reside in the final NBA Play-In Tournament spot in the Western Conference. At times, it seemed like the Warriors were beginning to figure things out this year. Then Green got suspended, Chris Paul and Gary Payton II got hurt, Andrew Wiggins took a leave of absence for personal reasons, and Curry recently missed a few games due to an ankle sprain.
For the Warriors, consistency is something that has been non-existent, and effort is no longer a trait that seems to exist every single night. The fact of the matter is that this organization is older and has not necessarily changed with the rest of the league. Whereas everyone was looking to catch up to the Warriors several years ago during their NBA Finals runs, Golden State now finds themselves trying to catch up to a league that is more athletic and well-rounded than it once was.
As the 2023-24 regular season winds down, opportunity still presents itself to Curry and Co. Pending matchups against the Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, and Houston Rockets are all opportunities for the Warriors to lock in and create some momentum for themselves ahead of the postseason. Perhaps they could even move up a few spots in the Western Conference standings to better their overall playoff odds.
However, this team has put together just one win streak longer than three games since the middle of December. Every time they take one or two steps forward, this is followed up with a massive step backward. On Monday night, the Warriors fell 119-112 at home to the New York Knicks. While the Knicks are a really solid playoff team in the Eastern Conference that earned this victory, Monday night was yet another reflection of the Dubs' inability to maintain consistency and the will to win when it matters most.
Impact of Warriors' loss to Knicks
Although Warriors fans may beg to differ, there is nothing wrong with losing to the Knicks on Monday night. Tom Thibodeau's group is always a tough-minded, gritty team, and they have one of the best offensive players in the league this season in Jalen Brunson. The main problem with this loss from the Warriors' perspective is the way it happened.
No matter what point in the game you look at, the Warriors kept hanging around due to the Knicks' inability to put them away. When New York got off to a fast start and went up 20-6 in the opening minutes of the game, the Dubs battled back to cut the lead to only eight points at the end of the first quarter. After the Knicks went up by as many as 15 points late in the second quarter, the Warriors cut the lead to only six at halftime.
In the second half, this story rewrote itself. The Warriors were able to pull within four points multiple times in the third and fourth quarters against New York, but they were unable to get over the hump and really keep their foot on the gas pedal in the midst of runs. As a result, the Knicks were the ones to come away with a hard-fought road victory, increasing their chances of hosting a first-round playoff series in the Eastern Conference.
For the Warriors, this loss really does sum up their season. So many times through the course of the year, Golden State has been close to pulling out victories, especially on their home floor. Unfortunately, closing out games has not been in the Warriors' DNA this season, resulting in tough losses like this one to the Knicks.
With this loss to the Knicks, the Warriors fell back down to the 10-seed spot in the West after leading the Los Angeles Lakers by a half-game. Due to the Lakers winning on Monday night, they have now pulled a game ahead of the Warriors for the 9-seed.
The story for the Warriors all season has revolved around their inability to outplay their opponents, something that was a staple for this group during their championship seasons. In terms of executing their plays on both offense and defense, the Warriors simply didn't have it against the Knicks.
“I don’t think it’s a lack of effort. I think it’s just…We weren’t good enough. It's that simple.” Kerr said while caught up in his own thoughts. “We just did not play well enough. It’s disappointing because we’ve got these three home games here this week and we wanted to get off on the right track. But that’s a really good team and they just out-played us, simple as that.”
The Warriors are now 3-5 over their last eight games, suffering three of these losses on their home floor. Two more home games remain for the Warriors before they embark on a five-game road trip, a span of games that could make or break their season as a whole given the position they now find themselves in right ahead of the playoffs and NBA Play-In Tournament.
Current Western Conference standings outlook
The Warriors are responsible for the hole they have dug themselves into this season. Despite the idea that a few more wins in clutch games this season would've resulted in them being in contention for an actual playoff spot and not a play-in tournament spot, this is just wishful thinking.
At this point, with 15 games remaining on their schedule, the Warriors can only afford to focus on winning every game they play because, as they inch further away from the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns, who occupy the 7-seed and 8-seed in the conference, the Houston Rockets are rapidly approaching Golden State's spot in the standings.
The Mavs and Suns are 3.5 games ahead of Golden State in the Western Conference standings. Phoenix owns a 3-1 season tiebreaker over the Warriors, and with one more victory over them, Dallas will own the season tiebreaker as well. Although Monday's loss to the Knicks is not the end of the world, that extra game the Warriors have now lost really lessens their chances to move up into the 7-seed vs. 8-seed play-in tournament game.
To make matters worse, the Rockets, who have won five straight games entering Tuesday night's matchup against the Washington Wizards, are just three games behind the Warriors in the standings. The only good news for the Warriors here is that they have won the first two meetings against Houston this year. If the Rockets are to beat the Wizards, which everyone should be banking on given how bad the Wizards are this season, they will be just 2.5 games behind Golden State in the standings.
Losing to the Knicks has complicated the Warriors' journey to the playoffs. Then again, this could be said about any of their losses over the last two weeks, especially some of which came down to the final few possessions. In Curry's eyes, this defeat on Monday night is yet another example of the team's consistency issues.
“Maybe a week or two ago, the 6-seed was the motivation,” Curry said in regards to the Warriors in the West standings. “Right now, I could care less about where you’re at. It's just the consistency of how we are playing. That's the most important thing. Honestly, who cares what seed you are? If you play like we did tonight — six, seven, eight, nine, 10 — whatever it is, doesn’t matter. You’re not getting very far.
“That's the perspective and the focus. It doesn't really matter where the standings are.”
Time is not on the Warriors' side anymore, and they are now in a race against themselves to figure out which spot they want in the play-in tournament. That is, assuming Golden State can hold onto their current position and not get overtaken by the Rockets.
Where will the Warriors finish?
In order for the Warriors to have any chance of moving up to the 6-seed, and avoiding the play-in tournament altogether, they are going to have to win their remaining matchups against the Mavs, Rockets, Lakers, Timberwolves, and Pelicans. Not to mention, they won't be able to afford to lose games to teams with sub-.500 records.
Essentially, the Warriors could only afford to drop just a few games while also seeing teams like the Suns, Mavs, and Sacramento struggle down the stretch run of the season. The best case scenario for the Warriors is finding a way to rise out of the 9-seed vs. 10-seed play-in game, which is a winner stays alive, loser goes home scenario.
Those 3.5 games that separate Golden State from Dallas and Phoenix really stand out now, especially since this is basically a four-game lead for both teams since they both currently occupy tiebreaker scenarios. Making up a four-game deficit in the standings with 15 games remaining would be extremely difficult to achieve unless the Warriors can win 12 or 13 of their remaining games, while also seeing either the Mavs or Suns lose roughly half of their remaining 14 games.
There is always the possibility of jumping ahead of the Lakers once more, as these two teams have flip-flopped in the standings in what seems like every game they play. A Warriors versus Lakers play-in tournament game in that 9-seed vs. 10-seed matchup seems inevitable and has been talked about for weeks now. Golden State owns the tiebreaker over Los Angeles right now, with these two teams set to play in one of the final games of the season. That final matchup will determine if the Warriors own the tiebreaker, and likely the nine-seed, over the Lakers.
For the Rockets to have a chance at overtaking the Warriors and booting Curry's club from any postseason action, they will need to continue their recent hot streak without starting center Alperen Sengun. Houston has a very favorable stretch approaching, as five of their next six games are against teams with a losing record. Claiming four of these five games, as well as taking down the Warriors on April 4, may just be enough to get the Rockets into the play-in tournament.
How the Western Conference plays out and what happens in terms of the actual playoffs truly does come down to what happens with the Warriors. Even though they have struggled mightily this season, they are still a championship-caliber organization that knows what it takes to win numerous seven-game series. If they are lucky enough to hold on and grab either the 7-seed or 8-seed via the Western Conference Play-In Tournament, they will give any of the top teams in the conference a run for their money.
Over their next seven games, which include a tricky five-game road trip with one back-to-back in Miami and Orlando, the Warriors must find a way to pick up at least five wins. Anything less puts Golden State's fate in the hands of other teams around the Western Conference. Curry and the team may not explicitly say it, but they don't want the 10-seed. They don't want the 9-seed either.
This franchise wants to give themselves two chances to claim a playoff spot via the play-in tournament. While this will be tough to achieve, especially after losing to the Knicks on Monday night, the Warriors are still confident that they can turn things around.
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