It is an all-Iowa battle as Iowa takes on Iowa State. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Iowa-Iowa State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Iowa enters the game sitting at 5-3 on the year and is coming off their first Big Ten loss of the year. After starting 2-0, they would fall to eighth-ranked Creighton, but they kept it close in that game and would fall 82-84. They have also lost to Oklahoma, with their biggest win over Seton Hall. Last time out, they faced top-five ranked Purdue. Purdue dominated the game. They led by 20 at the half and would beat Iowa 87-68.
Meanwhile, Iowa State enters the game at 6-2 on the year. They started the season 5-0, but have lost two of their last three games. First, it was a nine-point loss to Virginia Tech, and then a four-point loss to Texas A&M. Last time out they faced DePaul. It was a back-and-forth first half, with Iowa State leading by two at the half. They would go on a 24-2 run to start the second half and would go on to win 99-80.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Iowa-Iowa State Odds
Iowa: +6.5 (-102)
Iowa State: -6.5 (-120)
Over: 155.5 (-110)
Under: 155.5 (-110)
How to Watch Iowa vs. Iowa State
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Iowa Will Cover The Spread
Iowa comes into the game ranked 39th in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom this year. They are 14th on offense, but 138th on defense this year. The offense has been very solid for Iowa all year. They are ninth in the nation in points per game, while moving the ball well. Iowa sits nine in the nation assists per game and fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio. They are top 25 in the nation in shot attempts, shots made, and free throws made per game this year.
This is all led by Ben Krikke. He is averaging 18.4 points per game this year while shooting over 60 percent from the field. He has also been solid all around, coming in with 4.9 rebounds per game, 1.6 assists per game, and 1.3 steals per game. Meanwhile, Payton Sandfort comes in averaging 13.6 points per game. He is not the same level of shooter, hitting just 42.9 percent from the field, but fouling him is not an option. He is shooting 95.0 percent from the free-throw line this year. Sandfort has also been solid on the boards with 7.9 per game. Meanwhile, the top assist guy is Dasonte Bowen, who comes in averaging 3.4 assists per game, as the team averages 18.5 per game as a whole.
On the defensive end of things, Iowa is not great. They allow 77.1 points per game, which is 277th in the nation this year. The major issue has been in the paint, where opponents are shooting 51.7 percent this year which is 225th nationally. Still, Iowa has done a solid job rebounding. They are 67th in the nation in defensive rebounds. Still, they give up a lot of them too, sitting 249th in defensive rebounding given up per game this year.
The biggest key for Iowa is the turnover game. They give up just 8.9 turnovers per game, which is tenth in the nation. Iowa turns over the pall on just 10.4 percent of their plays, which ranks them third nationally. They also force 13.5 per game, which is good for 125th.
Why Iowa State Will Cover The Spread
Iowa State comes in ranked 25th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings this year. They are 66th on offense, but sit ninth on defense this year. The defense is truly what carries this team. They rank third in the nation in opponent points per game and first in the nation in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. They are also second in opponent field goals made per game and third in attempts. What truly makes the defense amazing is the steals and turnovers. They are fourth in the nation in steals per game, and second in steals per play. They have forced the fourth most amount of turnovers while being top 40 in not giving the ball away.
The defense has been led by Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert. Lipsey is averaging 3.0 steals per game this year. Meanwhile, Gilbert is averaging 2.0 steals per game. Lipsey is also the team leader in rebounding this year, sitting at 6.5 rebounds per game on the season.
Iowa State is still solid on offense this year. They rank 25th in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 17th in assists and 12th in assists to turnover ratio. Tamin Lipsey comes in as the leader in points and assists this year as well. He comes in with 15.1 points per game this year with 6.3 assists as well. Meanwhile, Keson Gilbert comes in with 14.8 points per game and 3.6 assists per game as well. Rounding out the top three guys is Milan Momcilovic. He comes in with 13.6 points per game this year.
The King is also having a solid year for Iowa State. He has 10.1 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, 1.3 assists per game, and 1.5 steals per game. He is also the best shooter right now, with a 59.3 field goal percentage this year.
Final Iowa-Iowa State Prediction & Pick
Iowa State has not faced a lot of high competition this year. They are 280th in strength of schedule this year, while Iowa is 88th. While Tamin Lipsey comes in off of a triple-double, he did so against some weaker competition. The offensive stats are padded by playing lower-level defensive competition. Iowa could pull off the win here with their top-level offense this year. They will outscore the average of Iowa State opponents by a fair amount. The under could also be a solid play here, with Iowa State's offense not being as productive against Iowa, plus Iowa State's defense being solid. Still, the best play in this game is on the spread. Iowa is going to keep this close throughout and could pull the upset.
Final Iowa-Iowa State Prediction & Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-102)