Jannik Sinner faces Alex de Minaur at the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Sinner-de Minaur prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner de Minaur.

Jannik Sinner is still alive at this Australian Open, but questions about his health and fitness are real. Sinner played Holger Rune under a punishing Australian summer sun in the fourth round, and his body barked loudly at him. Sinner was seen with his hands shaking during a changeover. He obviously did not feel well for a period of time in this match. He was fortunate that Rune, whose career has been hampered by recurring fitness problems, was also not 100-percent fit. Sinner got a visit from a doctor and was able to steady himself in a four-set win, but when you remember that Sinner did not feel well in his Wimbledon quarterfinal loss to Daniil Medvedev last year, it's fair to wonder if Sinner's body is just a little more vulnerable than it could or should be. Sinner's health, as much as his opponents, could prevent him from successfully defending his 2024 Australian Open championship. It's true that No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz lost, which opens up the draw for Sinner in a potential semifinal match. However, Sinner has to get past Australia's own Alex de Minaur in the quarters in order to gain the benefit of a favorable semifinal draw.

Alex de Minaur has reached the quarterfinals of all four major tournaments. Moreover, he has done this in the past four majors. He reached the French Open quarterfinals last year and has then gone to the round of eight at Wimbledon, the U.S. Open, and now in Melbourne. He is playing good ball and is getting a lot out of his game. De Minaur, being Australian, will be backed by a supportive home crowd Down Under. If he wants to make a first major semifinal, he will certainly get a lot of encouragement from a home-nation crowd which might turn this match into a Davis Cup road game for Sinner.

Most tennis analysts would say that Alex de Minaur lacks the elite weapons to beat Sinner, but if the Italian is not fully fit, de Minaur can win with his best weapon: His speed. De Minaur is fast and athletic, and he won't burn out. Sinner will have to hit the extra ball to beat him. If Sinner's body can't hold up, de Minaur has a chance of outlasting him.

Here are the Sinner-de Minaur Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Australian Open Odds: Sinner-de Minaur Odds

Game Spread:

Sinner -6.5 (-122)
de Minaur +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

Sinner -610

de Minaur +440

To Win First Set:

Sinner -300

de Minaur +230

Total Games In Match:

Over 34.5 (-116)
Under 34.5 (-116)

Total Games Won:

Sinner over 19.5 (-112)
Sinner under 19.5 (-118)

de Minaur over 14.5 (-120)
de Minaur under 14.5 (-110)

How to Watch Australian Open

Time: Approx. 5 a.m. ET / 2 a.m. PT (depending on length of previous match)

TV: ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN Plus

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Jannik Sinner Will Win

Jannik Sinner is playing a night match in cooler, calmer conditions. If this was a daytime match under the hot sun, Sinner would be in real trouble. At night, he should be comfortable and less inclined to have a health scare. If healthy, Sinner is miles better than de Minaur.

Why Alex de Minaur Will Win 

Sinner has lost a set in multiple matches in this tournament. If de Minaur can split the first two sets and turn this into an extended battle in which Sinner is kept on the court for over three hours, de Minaur can wear him down.

Final Sinner-de Minaur Prediction & Pick

We think Sinner wins, but de Minaur keeps it close. Take de Minaur against the spread.

Final Sinner-de Minaur Prediction & Pick: de Minaur +6.5