There is little doubt that Josh Allen is a physically gifted quarterback who has many of the tools needed to be successful in the NFL. He has a powerful arm and he can deliver the ball 60 yards or more downfield. He also is a superior runner who is not afraid to take on bigger and stronger tacklers in an attempt to keep drives alive or reach the end zone.
However, none of that makes Allen an elite quarterback. Throughout his 5-year career with the Buffalo Bills, Allen has been compared with the best quarterbacks in the game. His physical gifts have always been lauded, but the results are not there for the Bills.
Buffalo suffered a 27-10 defeat at home to the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional playoffs. The Bills were favored to win the game, but they fell behind early and never mounted a serious comeback.
This is nothing new, as the Bills have been to the playoffs in 4 consecutive years. They have lost once in the Wild Card game, twice in the divisional playoffs and once in the AFC title game.
Allen is largely compared with Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, Joe Burrow of the Bengals and Justin Herbert of the Chargers, but he does not appear to be up to their level. He also appears to have been bypassed by Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars.
Allen is often reckless in his decision making
A look at his season-long passing numbers in 2022 reveal that Allen completed 359 of 567 passes for 4,283 yards with 35 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Obviously, these are good number, but the interception numbers were not good.
Kirk Cousins of the Vikings and Derek Carr of the Raiders also threw 14 interceptions, but the other elite quarterbacks in the league all threw fewer picks.
Allen threw 2 more interceptions in Buffalo's 34-31 Wild Card win over the Miami Dolphins, and he threw another pick in the loss to the Bengals while failing to throw a TD pass.
Allen threw 15 interceptions in the 2021 season, but he did have a huge playoff performance. He threw 5 TD passes against a substandard New England Patriots team in the Wild Card game and added 4 more scoring passes against the Chiefs in the divisional playoffs while keeping it clean on the interception side of the ledger. However, the Bills dropped that game 42-36 in overtime.
Peak season may have been 2020
Allen became one of the top prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft when scouts looked at all of his measurables. The Wyoming quarterback checked in at 6-5 and 237 pounds. The Bills made him the No. 7 pick in the first round.
Allen was largely an unknown character because many fans had rarely seen him during his college career with the Cowboys. He quickly started to prove himself with the Bills, and he helped a struggling team become a regular playoff participant in his second year.
Allen's third season in 2020 was sensational. He completed 396 of 572 passes for 4,544 yards with 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Allen also ran for 421 yards and 8 touchdowns. He also led the Bills to the AFC title game, and while they fell to the Chiefs, Allen had 5 TD passes and just 1 interception in three postseason games.
But since the 2020 season, his interception issues have become far more problematic.
Much to prove in 2023
Nobody is going to write off Allen as a quarterback who can't get it done. He has not reached his potential yet because he did not improve in his 4th and 5th seasons. That makes the 2023 season a critical one for his legacy.
Allen is one of the most athletic and toughest quarterbacks in the league, but he must develop the nuances of his game that would allow him to lead his team to wins in the most critical games.
It is not about making spectacular plays that are used on the highlight shows repeatedly. It's about dependability and patience. Allen has to make sure all of his receivers are involved and he must create belief among his teammates and coaches.
The quarterback will have a long offseason to think about what has to happen from this point forward. If he realizes that he must demonstrate more maturity and dependability, he has a chance to get his career back on track. If not, he will be just another quarterback who was unable to turn potential into a consistent excellence — and he will not lead the Bills to a Super Bowl title.
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