No matter what happens from here on out, this season has and will be a rollicking success for the Detroit Lions. They clinched their first-ever NFC North division win in franchise history in Week 16 with their 30-24 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. Just because the Lions have made history, however, doesn't mean there still isn't more to play for. The Lions are currently tied with the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC. They will take the home playoff game, but the potential for a first-round bye week is absolutely worth pursuing.
But just because the Lions have won their division, that doesn't mean there still aren't some areas of concern for this team. The Lions are by no means a perfect team, though a very good team. They will be a tough out in the playoffs, but their playoff hopes could get crushed sooner than expected if these parts of the team don't improve between now and the postseason.
Lions' defense
The Lions' offense has been strong all season long. Their defense however… has not. This unit did get off to a strong note to start this season; through Week 8, the Lions ranked eighth in EPA allowed per play, seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, and 16th in EPA allowed per rush. That's all great.
However, things have taken a turn for the worse since the Lions' Week 9 bye. Since Week 10, the Lions have dropped from seventh to 24th in EPA allowed per play. Most importantly: they've dropped from seventh in EPA allowed per dropback to dead last. That'll happen when a team allows Nick Mullens to throw for 411 yards against them, though it certainly helps to have Justin Jefferson.
But this has been an issue for the Lions seemingly every week since their bye. Before the bye, they allowed at least 24 points in a game just twice in, and one of those games was against the Carolina Panthers who got there with 1:55 left in the game while already down 42-17. After their bye, the Lions have allowed at least 24 points in six of their last seven games. To make matters worse, the only teams in this stretch that rank in the top half of the NFL in EPA per play on offense are the Green Bay Packers (eighth) and Minnesota Vikings (15th). Below-average offenses have been running up points on the Lions.
The Lions offense is great. They rank seventh in the NFL in EPA per play this season and fifth since their bye week. But their defense has struggled mightily against teams that aren't even considered the best offensively. If they can't stop those teams, how will they stop the actual best offenses in the NFC? The Lions' matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this week will be a great litmus test to see how well this defense can hold up against the upper echelon of the NFL.
Road Jared Goff
Jared Goff is not the best quarterback in the NFL, but the Lions have surrounded him with everything he needs to be effective. Their offensive line and weapons have enabled Goff to post the eighth-highest EPA plus Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) in the league. But he hasn't been the same quarterback on the road as he has at home.
Jared Goff has been fine on the road this season, but a large portion of Detroit's road games have been indoor games. When the Lions have played outdoors this season, they are 3-2 with a point differential of -18. Unless the Lions earn the one seed in the NFC, they will have to play one of these types of games. The Lions and Jared Goff will have to step up if they do.
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