A ticket to the Elite Eight in the South Region is on the line as five-seed San Diego State faces off against one-seed Alabama. It is time to continue our March Madness Odds Series with a San Diego State – Alabama pick and prediction.
San Diego State enters the game after dispatching both Charleston and Furman in the first weekend. The defense has been stifling in both games so far, only allowing 54.5 points per game in the tournament. The Aztecs have not played the likes of Brandon Miller yet. Alabama is led by their star forward and has not been tested at all in the tournament. They easily took care of Texas A&M-CC before beating Maryland by 22. This should be a great defensive match-up overall, as KenPom has both teams in the top five of his adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.
Here are the San Diego State-Alabama March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: San Diego State-Alabama Odds
San Diego State: +7.5 (-115)
Alabama: -7.5 (-105)
Over: 137.5 (-110)
Under: 137.5 (-110)
How To Watch San Diego State vs. Alabama
TV: TBS
Stream: March Madness App
Time: 6:30 PM ET/ 3:30 PM PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why San Diego State Could Cover The Spread
Defense is going to be the key to unlocking an Elite Eight birth for San Diego State. So far in the tournament, they have held teams to shooting 46.5% from the floor, with only 27.5% from three-point range. This stellar defensive play is nothing new for them though. The Aztecs were 24th in the nation on the year in points per game allowed, at 63.1 points per outing. They smothered teams from three-point range all year as well. They were 6th in defensive three-point percentage, only allowing 28.8% shooting from three.
San Diego State is an average team at the free throw line, ranking 121st, and shooting 73.01 percent. The Aztec leading scorer, and isolation man, Matt Bradley is at 79.8% from the free throw line on the year. This may be important because Alabama will foul. Alabama was 222nd on the season in foul rate this year. If the Aztecs can covert at the line, especially if they can get Bradley there, they will keep this game tight.
Getting the right guys in foul trouble would be big for the Aztecs as well. Mark Sears averages over 1.2 steals per game, while Brandon Miller averages .9. San Diego State is minus two right now on the tournament in turnover margin, and considering the level of the team that they played, this is an area that needs to be cleaned up. Sears or Miller off of the floor would go a long way to help that.
Miller is also Alabama's leading rebound man. The Aztecs are a solid rebounding team, finishing 33rd in rebound margin this year. They go up against the 8th-ranked team in Alabama though. If San Diego State can manage to out-rebound Alabama, get a key guy in foul trouble, and limit turnovers, they will cover and may get the win.
Why Alabama Could Cover The Spread
KenPom ranks Alabama as the second-best team in the nation, 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The team is all-around elite. The first key to the game will be to control the pace of the game. Alabama likes to push the pace overall and work in transition. They are fifth in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and with their talent when they can work in transition, they often score a ton and win. San Diego State wants to slow things down and work in the half-court. They sit 263rd in adjusted tempo on the season, and would much rather our execute the other team than try to out-athlete them.
The second key will be getting scoring from behind the arc. Jahvon Quinerly just went 4-6 from three in the game against Maryland. San Diego State is great at defending the three-ball, but if Alabama can hit some, they can open up a lead that will be hard for the Aztecs to come back from.
Third, the Tide will be staying out of foul trouble. The Aztecs are great at capitalizing on mistakes. They are solid at the line, and if Alabama loses a major rebounding guy, they could easily lose the rebounding battle. This year, when Alabama lost the rebounding battle, they struggled. Keeping their best players on the court will wear down the Aztecs and allow Alabama to open up a lead.
Finally will be the defense. If Alabama can keep up with their effective defense, holding teams to under 35% shooting in the tournament, it will be hard for the Aztecs to keep up. The Aztecs need to be efficient on offense and average a high points per possession to pull the upset. If Alabama keeps forcing bad shots, they will not be able to do that.
Final San Diego State-Alabama Prediction & Pick
Alabama is just the better team here. They have better players, better scorers, better athletes, and better depth. Alabama likes to move with speed, hit three point shots, and get extra possesions on the offensive glass. These are all areas that San Diego State can slow down. There may not be an upset, but a low scoring and close affair is on tap.
Final San Diego State-Alabama Prediction & Pick: San Diego State +7.5 (-115) and Under 137.5 (-110)
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