The Seattle Mariners will begin a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Monday at Fenway Park. We're in the Green Monster, sharing our MLB odds series and making a Mariners-Red Sox prediction and pick.
Mariners-Red Sox Projected Starters
Logan Gilbert vs. Nick Pivetta
Logan Gilbert (6-6) with a 2.72 ERA
Last Start: Gilbert went 6 2/3 innings in his last outing, allowing five runs, one earned, four hits, striking out eight, and walking one in a loss to the Los Angeles Angels.
2024 Road Splits: Gilbert has done well on the road, going 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA over 11 starts away from Seattle.
Nick Pivetta (4-7) with a 4.50 ERA
Last Start: Pivetta was awful in his last start, going just 2 2/3 innings, allowing eight runs, seven earned, 10 hits, and striking out seven in a loss to the Colorado Rockies.
2024 Home Splits: Pivetta has struggled at Fenway, going 1-4 with a 5.50 ERA over seven starts at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Red Sox Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: -104
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: -112
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Mariners vs. Red Sox
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: RSNW
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mariners were struggling until this past weekend when they enjoyed a three-game sweep over the Chicago White Sox. Now, they must continue the momentum against a significantly better team, one they may face in the wildcard round. Their offense has struggled due to injuries to key players like Julio Rodriguez. Because of this, they have fallen from leaders in the American League West to completely out of the playoff race, trailing the final wildcard spot by 1 1/2 games.
The offense does not have much going for them other than Rodriguez. But they do have Cal Raleigh. Significantly, he currently leads the team in home runs with 21. Things are going well for him when he makes contact. However, he has struggled to make contact often. So when he does not, the rest of the offense tends to suffer. The Mariners need him to be the leader while Rodriguez recovers.
Gilbert has reached the seventh inning in three straight starts. Ultimately, he has gone 0-0 with a 3.12 ERA over four starts against the Sox in his career. When Gilbert completes this start, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is seventh in baseball in team ERA. Andres Munoz is the closer for now, but the Mariners added Yimi Garcia in a trade to strengthen their bullpen.
The Mariners will cover the spread if Raleigh and the offense can string some hits together. Then, they need Gilbert to dominate and avoid making mistakes against the top hitters in the lineup.
Why The Red Sox Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Red Sox are doing significantly better than last season. Yet, they are still on the outside looking in as they attempt to string some wins together. They need their offense to continue hitting the baseball and driving runs home.
Jarren Duran is one of the better hitters in the lineup. However, he is batting only .256 with 10 hits, two home runs, five RBIs, and six runs over 10 games against the M's. Rafael Devers is a monster at the plate and has also done well against the Mariners. Ultimately, he is hitting .331 with 51 hits, 10 home runs, 29 RBIs, and 32 runs. Tyler O'Neil is another good hitter who can make contact. Additionally, he is batting .300 with nine hits, two home runs, three RBIs, and six runs over nine games against Seattle.
Before his poor start, Pivetta had hurled three straight quality starts. Therefore, there is reason to believe he will bounce back in this start, especially against a team he has done rarely well against. Pivetta is 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA over four games against the M's. When he finishes his start, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 16th in team ERA. Kenley Jensen is the man who shuts the door down for the Sox and is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 20 saves in 23 chances.
The Red Sox will cover the spread if their lineup continues to play well. Then, they need Pivetta to bounce back.
Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
The Mariners have been in freefall for a long time, and things seem to be trending downward. Likewise, it is tough to trust them on the road. The Red Sox have covered the spread in all four games against Seattle this season. We also do like Pivetta to bounce back as he has been dominant. Gilbert is one of the best pitchers in the game. Unfortunately, he has had almost no run support this season. We expect that to continue.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Mariners-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-192)
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