The Mets come into this series after dropping the last two games to the Astros. They have just four wins in their last ten games, but that is an improvement, as they had just three wins in the ten before that. With a 7-13 record in their last 10 games, the Mets have dropped from a .500 team in the thick of the NL East race to 14 games behind the Braves in the division. The Phillies have been fairing a little better as of late. They did drop both of their games to the Braves but have won seven of their last ten games and 13 of their last 16 to climb back over .500 for the year. They sit at 38-36 on the season, ten games back of the Braves, but four games better than the Mets.
Here are the Mets-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+150)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-182)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
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Time: 7:05 PM ET/ 4:05 PM PT
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets were hoping the return of Pete Alonso to the lineup would inject some life into the offense, but for the most part, it has not. Alonso did have a home run Wednesday, driving in two runs. That was the second hit for him in his 16 at-bats since returning from injury. Combined with his pre-injury performance, Alonso is hitting just .143 this month, but he does have three home runs. Alonso is second in the majors with 23 home runs, even though he missed ten days here in June.
Overall, the Met's offense is slightly below average. They are tied for 14th in runs, but 19th in batting average and slugging, while sitting 15th in on-base percentage. Tommy Pham has been hitting fairly well as of late. So far in June, he is hitting .321 with 14 RBIS and four home runs. He also has six doubles and scored 11 times. Starling Marte has also been solid in the outfield. He is hitting .290 on the month, but only driven in six runs. He has scored 12 times, and stolen five bases in the process.
Still, many of the Met's major bats have struggled. Beyond Alonso, Francisco Lindor is struggling heavily. He did drive in another run last night, and that gives him seven in his last four games. He only has four other RBIs outside of that this month. Lindor is hitting just .193 on the month, but eight of his 11 hits so far this month have been for extra bases. He has four doubles and four home runs.
The Mets will be sending Kodai Senga to the mound today as the starting pitcher. He is 6-4 this year with a 3.53 ERA. The last time out was his worst outing since May 11th. He went 6.2 innings giving up four runs and two home runs. That has not been the norm for him though. Since the start of May, he has only given up a combined four home runs in eight starts. He also has six starts in which he gave up three or fewer earned runs, including two performances in which he did not give up a run. Senga has shown signs this year of being a top-caliber starting pitcher, but he is not doing it consistently yet. Still, he rarely has two poor starts in a row, and there should be a better start in line for him today.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Aaron Nola was amazing in the game yesterday. He went six innings and gave up just two hits in the outing. It was Yunior Marte who blew the game out of the bullpen. He was responsible for five runs in the tenth inning, which led to a loss. The starting pitching has been solid this year for the Phillies, as they are tied for 9th in quality starts. The bullpen has struggled though. The bullpen is 18th in the league in ERA while sitting 24th in the league in WHIP.
Taijuan Walker is taking the mound today hoping to continue his streak of good starts. He is 7-3 on the year with a 4.31 ERA. In June he has been great. He is 3-1 on the month with a 1.50 ERA in four starts. Last time out he was able to go eight innings and give up just one run. The two starts before that he went a combined 12 innings giving up just four hits and no runs allowed. Taking out two bad starts for Walker, his ERA would drop to 3.09 on the season. He is a good starting pitcher who should do well today against a struggling Mets offense.
On the offensive end, Nick Castellanos has been hot. While his seven-game hitting streak was snapped yesterday, he is still hitting .377 for the month. He has 15 RBIs and three home runs on the month. For the year, Castellanos is sixth in the majors in batting average while sitting top 30 in both RBIS and OPS. Castellanos is not even the team leader in RBIs. That is Alex Bohm, who is tied for 18th with 46 this year. Since coming back from injury, his hitting has not been perfect, but also not bad. He is hitting .256 with nine RBIs and a home run.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Phillies could have easily won the game yesterday. They just could not score, and that has been a common theme when they have lost as of late. Senga is not going to slow them down like some of the Braves pitchers did though. Both teams have a boom or bust star, with Alsonso for the Mets and Schwarber for the Phillies. Schwarber has been the better bat as of late though. This is a game of two teams tending in opposite directions. Take the hot team in this one.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-182)