We have you covered with our college football odds series with a Michigan–Penn State prediction and pick.

Entering the week coming off of yet another dominant showing, the Michigan Wolverines travel to State College facing their most formidable opponent yet. In week ten, Michigan took on Purdue in what will be their last home game until their November 25th showdown against Ohio State. In this game, Michigan did not give Purdue any room to breathe. Star running back Blake Corum marched for three touchdowns on the day, and the Michigan defense did not allow Purdue to score a single touchdown until 18 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Maintaining their perfect record will be difficult in this road game, but the Wolverines appear ready for the challenge.

After a disappointing loss to Ohio State and a close upset call to Indiana, Penn State reaffirmed its dominance with a 36-point road win over Maryland. Criticized for his throwing abilities, quarterback Drew Allar silenced his doubters with his best performance. He went 25-34 for 240 yards and four touchdowns. This led to his highest passer rating this season. With this confidence-boosting game under his belt, Allar will lead this hungry Nittany Lions team in this top-ten matchup with Michigan.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Michigan-Penn State Odds

Michigan: -4.5 (-115)

Penn State: +4.5 (-105)

Over: 45.5 (-105)

Under: 45.5 (-115)

How to Watch Michigan vs. Penn State Week 11

Time: 12:00 p.m. ET/9:00 a.m. PT

TV: FOX

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Michigan Will Cover The Spread

Since Michigan has not faced top-tier talent this season, J.J. McCarthy has often been underutilized and overlooked. However, he is one of the best players in the nation and will be the best quarterback on the field on Saturday. It is tough to gauge how he will fare against Penn State this season when seeing the caliber of talent he has thrown against. So, looking at last season's games against three top-ten teams, he was phenomenal through the air and ground. He posted a 59.8% completion percentage, averaged 250.3 yards passing and 45.3 yards rushing, and seven total touchdowns. McCarthy was built for games like this, and his maturity in these situations will pay dividends for the Wolverines.

The Michigan defense gets an immense amount of credit for this team's success, and deservedly so. However, this offense's ability to sustain drives and rack up time of possession has been the key to dominating their opponents week after week. The Wolverines are converting 55.6% of their third downs and 63.6% of their fourth downs. It seems like punter Tommy Dorman has barely seen the field this season because of the efficiency of this offense. For Michigan to cover, they must get key first downs when needed and have the ball in their hands for the majority of this game. Based on their track record this season, it looks like they will do exactly that.

Why Penn State Will Cover The Spread

The Big Ten has been known as a running back's conference for several decades now. Opposing backs have torn the best defenses in the country apart. However, this Penn State run defense is unlike many other defenses. The physicality this defense has brought to limit opposing backs next to nothing on the ground has been historic. The Nittany Lions have allowed just 545 total rushing yards through nine games. This correlates to an average of 60.6 yards per game, the second-fewest in the nation. Additionally, they have allowed only six rushing touchdowns. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are exceptional, but they will be in line for the toughest matchup of their careers against this front seven.

In a matchup like this, it is essential to be better than your opponent in two positions—quarterback and kicker. Although Michigan has the quarterback department advantage, Penn State has the better kicker. Alex Felkins is drilling his kicks at an 81.3% mark this season. From 30-49 yards out, he has gone an impressive 8-9, and two weeks ago, he made a season-long 50-yard attempt. His career long is 53 yards, and he has drilled four 50+ yarders in his career. With the spread at 5.5, this figures to be a one-score game decided by one to two field goals. If this game comes down to that, look for Penn State to cover because they have the more consistent leg on their sidelines.

Final Michigan-Penn State Prediction & Pick

College football does not get any better than this. The #3 ranked Michigan Wolverines take their undefeated record to State College to battle the #10 ranked Penn State Nittany Lions. All the lights in the college football world have been on Michigan due to their alleged sign stealing. With this scandal out in full force, it seems to have diminished the on-field play of the athletes for Michigan this season. While it is very tough to bet against Penn State in their white-out game, I will go with Michigan in this one. This season, J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, and Donovan Edwards are exactly who Drew Allar, Kaytron Allen, and Nicholas Singleton will be in the next 1-2 seasons. Even though Penn State has the better defense, the difference in maturity between these offenses will decide the game. Give me the Michigan Wolverines against the spread.

Final Michigan-Penn State Prediction & Pick: Michigan Wolverines -4.5 (-115)