Let the groaning begin. You know why you're here. One does not venture into a Mike Williams fantasy football article without looking for pain. Though, you also know the upside that comes with the 6-foot-4 red-zone target. And that is the double-edged sword of drafting the Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver.

But it might be getting sharper on one end more than the other following last regular season and this offseason. Regardless of what we determine here or where you land before your draft, Williams' managers must have a healthy dose of antacids on hand during Sunday afternoons.

Let's navigate the wild, unpredictable Mike Williams experience together, as we assess our 2023 fantasy football outlook for the 28-year-old wideout.

The Fantasy Football Player

The former national champion can be a volatile fantasy option from week to week, but he is coming off back-to-back strong campaigns. Williams was a top-15 WR (PPR) after a sensational 2021-22 campaign (76 receptions, 1,146 receiving yards and nine touchdowns) and was still valuable last year when healthy. Despite taking a step back– missing four games with injury and being hampered in multiple others– he still nearly found his way into the top 30 rankings.

Williams' penchant for the big play and his presence in a high-powered passing offense has given him a decent floor in recent years. However, he sometimes draws criticism from fans for not blossoming into a consistent No. 1 receiver and is hard to trust given his iffy injury history. Those shortcomings are unlikely to disappear in 2023.

A division and conference loaded with offensive stardom could put Williams in plenty of favorable matchups, but there are still other factors that threaten to make him more of a wild card than ever before.

The Team & Situation

Mike Williams is going to have stiff competition to be Justin Herbert's No. 2 WR option. While Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler are huge target magnets, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft has been the clear next guy in line. Until now, that is. Rookie Quentin Johnston greatly complicates the offensive hierarchy.

LA invested a first-round pick in the 21-year-old for a reason. He should get plenty of looks right away. The question that will heavily impact both his and Williams' fantasy value, though, is how many will that be? Johnston has a similar build and skill set, which should send quite the telling message to fans and managers.

The Chargers want a Mike Williams-type wide receiver. They just might not have much faith in the original anymore. The incoming TCU standout is not a mere insurance policy. Even a healthy Williams is going to be fighting for opportunities. Although new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will give everyone a chance to eat, there may not be enough portions to go around to guarantee that this team has more than one true every-week fantasy football receiver.

Mike Williams Fantasy Outlook

There has never been more risk associated with selecting this talent in a fantasy football draft. The Chargers could be a better team on both sides of the ball, but that might mean fewer chances for volume.

Williams is still going to make spectacular catches and break free for some touchdowns. He remains a part of this franchise's plan for the time being. We are evaluating his fantasy value, though, not his actual value. A myriad of questions and changes means that the Clemson product cannot be relied upon to be one of your top two pass-catchers.

With Justin Herbert throwing him the ball and Keenan Allen diverting defensive attention from his direction, Mike Williams can offer WR3 upside. But it will be difficult to feel comfortable with him being more than a flex in 2023. While his ability makes him tantalizing, he is a top candidate to elicit many “I should have known better” type of responses come this winter.