The Miami Marlins take on the Seattle Mariners. Our MLB odds series has our Marlins Mariners prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Marlins Mariners.

The Miami Marlins have exceeded expectations to this point in the MLB season. They are several games above .500 and are currently in position to get a National League wild card berth. It's true that the Marlins are benefiting from the struggles of many National League teams this season. The New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals are all underperforming to varying degrees. Yet, even if you claimed the Marlins are lucky due to their competitors' problems, it remains that the Marlins have a winning record and are doing better than anyone anticipated. They're winning a lot of one-run games — they have one of the best records in baseball in one-run contests — and their bullpen has been able to do a reasonably good job of protecting late leads. It is a clear improvement from 2022. Though the Marlins have been torched in the first two games of this three-game set in Seattle, they are still ahead of schedule in the 2023 season and have a real shot at playing meaningful baseball games in September. That's a huge step forward for the franchise.

Here are the Marlins-Mariners MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Marlins-Mariners Odds

Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-142)

Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+118)

Over: 7 (-105)

Under: 7 (-115)

How To Watch Marlins vs. Mariners

TV: Bally Sports Florida (Marlins) / Root Sports (Mariners) / MLB Extra Innings

Stream: MLB.tv

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET/6:40 p.m. PT

*Watch Marlins-Mariners LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread

The Marlins lost the first two games of this series, but the odds of them getting swept — based on the season they are having compared to what the Mariners are doing — are relatively low. Sure, Luis Castillo is pitching for the Mariners, but if you look at Castillo's starts this season, the Mariners aren't a lock to win when Castillo is on the mound. Seattle has lost three of the last five games in which Castillo has pitched.

Here's a fun pair of statistics: Miami starter Eury Perez has a 2.17 ERA this season. Castillo's ERA is 2.70.

It's not that complicated. The Marlins are having a better season than the Mariners. Perez is not overmatched in a head-to-head battle against Castillo.

The Marlins should cover because they can shut down the Mariners' bats. Seattle has scored a lot in the past two games, but Perez could contain them in this game and enable Miami to salvage one game in this series.

Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread

The Mariners have Luis Castillo at home against the Marlins. That could be the simple summation of why Seattle will cover the spread, but let's go a few steps further. The Mariners, after a bad weekend series in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels, bounced back with strong performances against the Marlins on Monday and Tuesday. There is still plenty of belief in the clubhouse and in the dugout that the Mariners can rally and mount a charge. After all, it was at this point in the 2022 season — the middle of June — when Seattle began to get rolling and initiated the 14-game winning streak which completely changed the trajectory of the campaign. With Luis Castillo on the hill in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, the Mariners have to love their chances.

Final Marlins-Mariners Prediction & Pick

The Marlins have overachieved, but Luis Castillo will make sure they don't overachieve in this game. Take Seattle.

Final Marlins-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5