The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals have split the first two games of the series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Orioles-Royals prediction, pick, and how to watch.
In game one, it was an 11-7 win for the Orioles, as Ryan Mountcastle hit two two-run home runs to give them the win. Yesterday it was a Vinnie Pasquantino home run and five scoreless innings from Zach Grinke that gave the Royals the win. Orioles' pitcher Kyle Gibson had his worst start of the campaign, giving up six runs in 6.2 innings on the way to his first loss of the year. Now the series is split as they finish the series today.
Here are the Orioles-Royals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Royals Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (-115)
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-104)
Over: 9.5 (-102)
Under: 9.5 (-120)
How To Watch Orioles vs. Royals
TV: BSKC / MASN2
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 2:10 PM ET/ 11:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Since starting the season 4-5, the Orioles have gone 16-5 since. They have won seven of their last ten, and it was the first time this year that the O's have been shut out. Even with the amazing start for the Rays, the Orioles find themselves just 4.5 games behind the Rays for first in the division. They currently have the second-best record in the American League, and third-best in all of baseball. The Orioles have done it with base stealing, solid pitching, and timely hits.
The Orioles rank 9th in the majors with a .273 batting average when runners are in scoring position this year. Leading the way has been Cedric Mullins, who has a .462 batting average in those situations, and a .611 on-base percentage. Beyond his clutch hitting, Mullins has been a menace on the base path, stealing 11 bases on the year. Ryan Mountcastle continues to hit bombs as well. He has eight home runs this year and leads the team with 26 RBIs. Adley Rutschman is also putting together a solid campaign, he has a slash line of .313/.423/.464 on the year.
Grayson Rodriguez is getting the start today. After a slightly rough start to his campaign, he has been great in the last two outings. His last two outings have combined for ten innings pitched, seven hits, four walks, 15 strikeouts, and no runs scored. If he can keep up close to that pace, the Orioles will win today with ease.
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
Since their seven-game losing streak, the Royals have been on quite the pattern. They score well, then lose two or three in a row. Well, the Royals just won and scored well, so the logical next step for them is a loss. The Royals finally got some solid pitching yesterday, with Grinke and three relievers combining for a shutout. On the season, the Royals rank 28th in team ERA at 5.49. The bullpen is 26th in the majors with an ERA of 5.30. Per baseball reference, they are just one of eight teams with an average age of pitchers over the age of thirty. So this is not a case of young pitchers trying to figure it out, it is just bad pitching.
Jordan Lyles will be scheduled today to try and bring down that ERA. Lyles is 0-5 on the season with a 6.11 ERA in six starts. He has given up three or more runs in five of his six starts and has given up two or more home runs in four of them. In his two best starts of the season, Lyles got a combined zero runs of run support, making it difficult for him to get the win.
Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., and MJ Melendez will be charged with trying to give run support today. Perez leads the team in RBIs this year with 16. Pasquantino has hit six home runs to go with his 14 RBIS this year and a team-leading .380 OBP. Witt Jr. Has scored 20 times to lead the team while stealing 8 bases. Melendez has struggled to a .180 OBP, but that rises to .273 when runners are in scoring position.
Final Orioles-Royals Prediction & Pick
Recent trends say stay away from the Royals in this one. The Royals have won back-to-back games only one time this year and are currently 2-5 against the spread in days after a win. In the nine losses before last night this year, the Orioles are 7-2 in the games after a loss and have covered -1.5 in four of them. The Orioles have the far better pitcher heading to the mound today and have the better bats as well. Take them and lay the runs.
Final Orioles-Royals Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (-115)
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